2002: LeBron James and Stephen Curry

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LeBron James and Stephen Curry

Title text: The 538TR attempts to capture a player's combined skill at basketball (either real-life or NBA 2K18) and election forecasting.

Explanation

This explanation may be incomplete or incorrect: Created by a Basketball - Please change this comment when editing this page. Do NOT delete this tag too soon. If you can address this issue, please edit the page! Thanks.

At first glance, the comic looks like an in-depth analysis of two NBA star players, LeBron James and Stephen Curry. The joke is that while comprehensive, all the statistics are completely meaningless - many don't show any correlation, and if there is one, it's extremely unlikely there is any causal link in there.

The first graph include a nine-digit Social Security number issued for US citizens which is typically not considered a metric related to athletic ability.

The second graph looks at teammate's {w|APGAR score}} which is used to quickly summarize the health of newborn children. APGAR scores of 7 and above indicate an infant has generally normal health. This graph indicates LeBron's teammates have an APGAR score of approximately 2.1. Scores of 3 and below are generally regarded as critically low and possibly requiring medical attention. Low APGAR scores can also be associated with increased risk of neurological disorders such as cerebral palsey. The joke appears to be that LeBron is a star player carrying a sub average team while their opponents the Warriors are perhaps a more well rounded team.

The shot map shows from what position Curry's shots were scored compared to other NBA players. It shows that he scored several times from outside the playing field, including twice from the bleachers (which isn't a legal play), and once from the locker room (which is physically impossible due to multiple walls in between).

The note about the alignment with Magnetic North is likely a reference to Foxes. Artic and Red Foxes both have a distinctive hunting method, called 'mousing', involving tracking prey that is hiding under the snow, then leaping into the air and diving into the snow head-first, to try to catch the prey. A study found that they are more likely (to a statistically significant degree) to catch their prey when mousing, when they start facing approximately 20 degrees east of Magnetic North. (link: [1])

Nate Silver is a political commentator and founder of FiveThirtyEight website, famous for getting everything right in 2012 US presidential elections, and getting everything approximately right in 2016.

Transcript

This transcript is incomplete. Please help editing it! Thanks.

NBA Playoffs DataDive

LeBron James and Stephen Curry

What makes these superstars so extraordinary?

[The comic consists of several plots and tables, listed here in western reading order.]

Scatter plot of Social Security number vs Free throw percentage

The Social Security numbers range from 000-00-0000 to 999-99-9999. No pattern discrenable, aside from points being a bit denser in the middle of the plot. Steven Curry is marked as a point on the right edge of the plot.

Scatter plot of 2018 points per game vs Average teammate Apgar score

Pattern suggests a somewhat positive link between the two factors. LeBron James is marked as having a lot of points, but low teammate score.

Shot map

A map of a basketball field is shown with dots placed where players have taken shots at the goal. Steven Curry has dots in a separate color. For the all players category the dots generally cluster next to the goal basket and in front of the three point line. Steven has no dots next to the basket, but does cluster next to the three point line. He also has several dots off the side of the playing field, including three in the bleachers and one in the locker room.

Sandwiches eaten during play vs Win %

A plot that suggests no relation between the factors because practically all dots are in the zero sandwiches column. 2018 Warriors have one dot marked as a high win % and 4 sandwiches.

2018 total points

A table listing teams and their total scores with an extra column labeled "When net is within 15° of magnetic north". The row for the Cleveland Cavaliers is highlighted and shows an abnormally high score in the magnetic north column.

2018 total points		When net is within 15° of magnetic north
	Overall	North
Golden State Warriors	9304	330
Houston Rockets	9213	268
New Orleans Pelicans	9161	219
Toronto Raptors	9156	341
Cleveland Cavaliers	9091	1644
Denver Nuggets	9020	280

[A table at the bottom:]

	Stephen Curry	LeBron James
Have you heard of him	Probably	Yes
President during most recent game 7 loss	Obama	Bush
Pog collection	Large	Staggeringly large
Career average Fed interest rate	3.42%	4.41%
Name Scrabble score	22	22
Best sport	Basketball	Basketball
Height	Over 6'	Over 6'
Retirement year	2027	Unknown	Nate Silver
FiveThirtyEight total rating (devised by Nate Silver to combine all metrics into a single stat)	37.4	31.8	86.6

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Discussion

I have no idea what this is about, but wondered if Stephen Curry was related to the Curry twins Tom and Ben, who are both over 6' - or to Tim, who isn't except in heels. Arachrah (talk) 07:53, 4 June 2018 (UTC)

Both LeBron James and Stephen Curry are famous NBA players. 172.69.190.4 08:46, 4 June 2018 (UTC)

How would you not know that? And even if you don't know who they are, you must have at least heard about them before, right? Herobrine (talk) 09:21, 4 June 2018 (UTC)

Not everyone is from USA. 172.69.190.4 09:41, 4 June 2018 (UTC)

That excuse could work, except your IP address is based in the USA :) Zachweix (talk) 12:01, 4 June 2018 (UTC)

So is mine right now, but that doesn't mean I'm from here, and they didn't make us memorise every NBA player on the plane. (Hey cool, this IP has edited here before too) 162.158.186.60 15:36, 4 June 2018 (UTC)

Basketball is the second most popular sport in the world [Citation needed], so it is safe to assume a large portion of the internet people know LeBron and Curry even if it is only by memes. 172.68.26.173 (talk) (please sign your comments with ~~~~)

According to Wikipedia Sport page, cricket is the second most popular sport in the world. Basketball is number 7. 05:15, 2 June 2019 (UTC)

I like Curry. You know, the dish. And the actor. Tim, that is. Elektrizikekswerk (talk) 11:58, 4 June 2018 (UTC)

Not everyone in the USA follows sports. I've heard of LeBron James, but only in passing. The only Curry I know of is a fictional one from some old movie. 162.158.74.147 (talk) (please sign your comments with ~~~~)

Nate Silver

Nate Silver is famous for his numerical approach and extensive use of statistics and simulations. He foresaw a probability of 28.6% for Donald to win the electoral college just before the election. That is a greater chance than most political commentators would have granted Donald. Typical betting sites saw Hillary 5:1 ahead at the evening of the election. So I would not at all say that he got everything wrong in 2016. He predicted that Hillary would be a formidable number of votes ahead as most probable outcome, but also that many states would be very tight. [[2]]. Sebastian --172.68.110.106 09:21, 4 June 2018 (UTC)

Definitions needed

Hi! Could definitions be added for some of the terms used, such as "bleachers"? Thanks! 162.158.155.200 11:30, 4 June 2018 (UTC)

really?[[3]]108.162.219.232 14:07, 5 June 2018 (UTC)

Glad someone said it before I did. 172.68.58.203 20:43, 5 June 2018 (UTC)

IDK, "bleachers" is a pretty basic word from the English language... Okay, somewhat sports-centric - it means the array of seats around a sporting event, where the audience sits (and as such would be out of bounds in this case, outside of the valid playing area) - but still. NiceGuy1 (talk) 02:34, 6 June 2018 (UTC)

Note that when you ask google to "define bleachers", google includes the fact that it's a "NORTH AMERICAN" term. So no, it's not a "pretty basic word from the English language", it's a "pretty basic word from the North American English language". I'm not sure what's worse: someone who doesn't think to use google when they don't know a word, or someone who thinks that everyone in the world should know all the words they use in their country. 162.158.187.19 03:39, 7 June 2018 (UTC)

Sorry, you're very wrong in your analysis here, your outrage is inappropriately misplaced. There is absolutely NOTHING about the word "bleachers" or the concept for any of us to suspect it might be a term unique to North America. There is no reason me or any other North American might check if it's a term not used elsewhere. This SHOULD be a worldwide term, there's nothing North-America-centric about the concept. Honestly, it just makes me wonder what the hell England and other English speaking countries use. I have to think Cricket and football (what we call soccer) matches and whatever other sporting events occur must have audiences on occasion, where do they sit? And in Harry Potter, both the books and movies, all Quidditch matches - including the World Championship - are surrounded by bleachers (if raised high), the items certainly exist! I guess they weren't referred to as "bleachers", I just didn't notice the absence of the word. And allow me to bounce your outrage right back at you. Most North Americans - in my experience - are quite aware of British terms not used here - lift for what we call elevators, flat for what we call apartments, football for what we call soccer, to name a few - why can't people from other cultures show ours the same respect? I think this might be the first North American term I've heard of, that isn't attached to local products! (Well, second, after "soccer"). I knew there were British words not used here, this is the first I hear that the reverse was true too. NiceGuy1 (talk) 05:42, 12 June 2018 (UTC)

I am not a native English speaker, but at school we generally learned more of a british English. Also from time to time tune I in to English football (aka soccer) matches, which are naturally broadcasted in British English. I think in British English they usually refer to the place where the crowd is as (the) stands. And regarding the "analysis" you claim is wrong, it was you in the first place who said it was basic, apperantly as a native speaker of American English and without of research, so I'd tend to argue against you, if you wouldn't have started the statement with "idk", exactly saying that this is a statement based on your gut-feeling about the word, instead of giving definite knowledge. And regarding that one specific comment: Thanks for reminding me that I always procastrinate in reading the Harry Potter series in its original language :D My book pile of shame is bigger than the one in my steam-library. --Lupo (talk) 10:01, 16 January 2020 (UTC)

As a (belated) addendum to the above "stands" (I've been to, e.g., basketball games in the UK and the stadium seating was never described as "bleachers", though I know the term from US shows/films), before a small set of deadly accidents in football (soccer) stadiums, about thirty years ago, the common large/medium football ground spectator area was a stepped slope upon which those watching would stand, often shoulder to shoulder and pretty much chest to back of head. Hence (at least in part) "stands"

(Almost as packed as you could imagine everyone, though apparently enough 'wriggle room' to allow the (almost always male) spectator who was "caught short" to take the rolled up newspaper they may have brought, tucked in their overcoat pocket, and manouever it to the area of their trouser-fly to funnel the bodily product of the last few pints of beer, before the match, 'safely' down onto the steps to not overly-annoy the guy directly in front, though you can imagine that this got multiplied into more than just a trickle by the time you got to the lower tiers of steps (if there were drains/channels in the steps, they probably got blocked/restricted by the used cigarette butts and sodden fragments of newspaper) from the accumulated 'relief' of the tens/hundreds of higher-up persons discreetly (and discretely) so inclined to do so...)

After Hillsborough, especially, "all-seater stands" became necessary (with further required measures to prevent the likes of the Bradford Stadium Fire, that being seating on antiquated wood with an accumulation of rubbish slipped beneath through the riserless 'flooring'), although there have been very recent changes made to allow all-standing stands again (with careful review).

But "stands" seems to apply to many structures (generic), at least in sports context from top-level golf to F1. Usually with seating, possibly temporary, either with a solid base (or solid but over various mezzanines with conveniences and food/etc outlets) or merely scaffold with the kind of 'make-out' space beneath (for those enterprising/daring enough to go there, assuming this space isn't tightly locked or patrolled by security). Not so much in theatres (a language of their own), but as likely in multi-use stadium spaces (O2 Arena, say), even if officially they still print "balcony"/etc on the appropriate seat tickets.

Obviously, non-UK usage (across the rest of the Commonwealth, specifically) might be heavily influenced by the US term, especially (anglophonic) Canada. I'm sure the Aussies have their own branch of terminology, 'creative' as they are with that sort of thing, even if mixed in and interchangable with such terms of US/UK origin as they don't outright dislike the sound of. But can't speak for them, nor necessarily of all regions of the UK, because who knows what the likes of a Wegie/etc is ever really saying if you're not from around there yersel'! 172.70.91.54 17:27, 12 October 2022 (UTC)

FYI, "scaffold with the kind of 'make-out' space beneath" would be the primary version called "bleachers". :) Usually if you say bleachers, this is the first kind people think of. "Under the bleachers" is a common concept. NiceGuy1 (talk) 05:51, 12 November 2022 (UTC)

I thought "bleachers" was a US-term for _outdoor_ seating, with the name coming from being bleached by the Sun. Even if we ignore the fact that they're then the things being bleached rather than the bleachER (maybe the bleachees?), wouldn't that mean that an indoor basketball court wouldn't have bleachers? 162.158.90.102 (talk) (please sign your comments with ~~~~)

Merriam-Webster does not refer to any specific origin or region of typical use for the term (but gives usage examples that appear to cite american sources exclusively), while both Britannica and Cambridge dictionaries refer to it as 'US'. Thus, it's likely not even 'North American', which would include Canada, but rather U.S. American. Being trained in British English as well, I would also have used 'stands'

You should sign your comments, FYI, to end them and have the bots add a timestamp. If I hadn't seen this in a list of Recent Changes I wouldn't know it was recent. To be clear, my big comment above I keep saying "North America" because I'm in Canada, and yes, it's a Canadian word too. :) NiceGuy1 (talk) 05:51, 12 November 2022 (UTC)

Magnetic North

I would have liked the "magnetic north" thing to be due to the geographical orientation of the teams home courts (if the Cavaliers are the only team to have a court that happens to be roughly north-south oriented, it would explain the higher points value). Looking at the Stupid Name Arena, however, it appears that the court inside is probably about NW-SE. Too bad. Chrullrich (talk) 14:15, 4 June 2018 (UTC)

It is probably referencing how Lebron-led teams always make quick work of the perennially promising Toronto Raptors teams that call themselves "the North". 172.68.26.173 (talk) (please sign your comments with ~~~~)

I was thinking that might be a reference to the Cleveland Cavaliers playing their home games at a slightly high latitude than the (San Fransico-based) Golden State Warriors. (However, they are nearly at the same latitude, and neither is anywhere near 75 degrees North) JamesCurran (talk) 19:24, 4 June 2018 (UTC)

when I read “when net is within 15° of magnetic north” I assumed it meat games played where the arena was inside the circle with a radius of 15° latitude centered on magnetic north, which I’m guessing would include a few (or at least 1) arenas, perhaps in Canada (since magnetic north is somewhere in north eastern Canada). Do American basketball teams play Canadian teams in Canada like they do ice hockey and baseball teams? 162.158.62.159 (talk) (please sign your comments with ~~~~)

Yes, they do. As of the 2017-2018 NBA season, there was one team located in Canada, the Toronto Raptors. List of National Basketball Association arenas Each team plays all other teams at least twice each season, once at home and once away. Some teams play each other more than that, depending on Division and Conference. How many times does one team in the NBA play another in a regular season? These Are Not The Comments You Are Looking For (talk) 00:37, 10 June 2018 (UTC)

SSN to Free Throw%

Would it be too much of a stretch to add in the fact that Stephen Curry's point is highlighted on the chart, as a nod to the fact that (the majority of) one's SSN can actually be determined if one knows details about personal information such as where one was born? 108.162.219.130 16:08, 4 June 2018 (UTC)

Not anymore. My three kids were all born in the same hospital -- same wing; rooms only meters apart -- but have TOTALLY different SSN's. (No, I'm not sharing them as proof!) We even asked the local SS office what happened and they said they're starting to reuse numbers at random. I think it's not "reuse" as much as "reallocate", but either way the strict geographical basis is no longer valid. --BigMal // 172.69.70.209 16:31, 4 June 2018 (UTC)

Originally, the first three digits indicated the office where the person requested an SSN. It didn't really signify anything. It was just that each office was given on a block of numbers to assign, and that block all started with the same three digits. Since in the early days of Social Security, a person got theirs, not at birth, but when they first got a job, it was more of an indication of where they happened to be living then, rather than where they were born. By the 60s, SSN assignment had been centralized, but they still tried to maintain the regional number, based on the zip code of the person requesting an SSN. Apparently, they have more recently realized that's just a waste of time and just started issuing them sequentially. JamesCurran (talk) 19:17, 4 June 2018 (UTC)

New method started in 2011, so until around 2029 we'll be able to use the "SSN to FT% in NBA" metric, and have it tie to location at time of SSN generation.162.158.74.165 21:37, 4 June 2018 (UTC)

Does anyone know what the "sandwiches" graph is a reference to? I don't believe I have heard anything about the Warriors and a love for sandwiches. 172.68.46.101 17:03, 4 June 2018 (UTC)

Maybe this? [[4]] 162.158.62.39 17:23, 4 June 2018 (UTC)

No, its this. [[5]] The Warriors were obsessed with peanut butter and jelly sandwiches, eating tons of them and fighting ownership when they tried to take them away. The idea that Curry at four a game is completely plausible and might even have been reported in the news. 162.158.79.175 20:31, 14 April 2024 (UTC)

More on SSN to Free Throw%

I did a quick digitization of the SSN /FT% graph, and the Steph Curry point is at about FT% = 92.5% and SSN ~ 300-XX-XXXX, which corresponds to his 2018 ft% of 92.1% (from wikipedia) and his birthplace of Ohio having a SSN in the range of 268-302 https://www.ssofficelocation.com/social-security-number-prefix . Even if SSN prefixes are random now, they probably weren't when he was born 30 years ago, so it is probably safe to conclude that the location of the point is deliberate. Acflip (talk) 19:01, 4 June 2018 (UTC)

They changed in 2011 to random generation. I doubt there's any 7 year old NBA players, so until 2029 we'll be able to use this -ahem- metric.162.158.74.165 21:34, 4 June 2018 (UTC)

On the pog collection

Is it possible that the "pog collection" also refers to the player's collection of Player of the Game awards? Lebron James would surely have a staggering amount of it, and Steph Curry would have considerably less, since Steph Curry has a lot of other good teammates. Skybreak (talk) 07:58, 5 June 2018 (UTC)Skybreak

Best Sport

Lets be real here. The odds of them being better at a sport then basketball are basically nill. Unless you use an unusual definition of "sport" or "better". 108.162.219.232 14:07, 5 June 2018 (UTC)

Shot Map

It may be a reference to the tunnel shot, but it's more likely just a joke about Steph Curry's unusual range for field goals. He's well known for making 3-point shots from much farther out than the average the NBA player. Hasown (talk) 14:57, 5 June 2018 (UTC)

Thinking about it further, the map doesn't even show any shots from the tunnel, and the tunnel's placement is inaccurate as well. The tunnels to the locker rooms are in the corners of the court, not directly behind the hoop. There are always bleachers behind the hoop for fans to sit. Hasown (talk) 15:03, 5 June 2018 (UTC)

Jimmy Kimmel made a similar joke on TV last night, saying that Curry made a 3-pointer from the parking lot. Should Randall sue? Barmar (talk) 16:11, 5 June 2018 (UTC)

"correctly predicting for whom 49 of 50 of the 2008 and every US state would vote for in the 2012", this line is rather mangled, but I'm not sure how to fix it (dunno this guy, dunno if his predictions were thus accurate for 2008, 2012, or both, etc). Also, I must thoroughly agree with Randall about people hearing of them. As a non-sports fan from North America, I've heard LeBron referenced elsewhere (like TV shows) many, many times, but I feel like I've never heard of the other guy. NiceGuy1 (talk) 02:45, 6 June 2018 (UTC)

Google is honoring the inventor of the Apgar score, Doctor Virginia Apgar, today. 172.69.210.34 19:46, 7 June 2018 (UTC)

Have You Heard of Him

With over 800 million fans worldwide [6] it's very unlikely that fewer than 140 million people (2% of the population) have heard of this era's dominant player.Harris (talk) 10:10, 10 June 2018 (UTC)

APGAR plot reversed

Was the APGAR plot reversed since the explanation was written? It appears to me that it's saying James had an APGAR of something around 2, while the teammates average is closer to 6 or 7 - so either I'm misreading it, someone else misread it, or it changed at some point? - Brettpeirce (talk) 16:05, 29 March 2023 (UTC)

It's rating players by their points per game and the average Apgar scores of their teammates. According to this graph, LeBron's teammates' Apgar scores were lower than those of the teammates of anyone else who got a similar number of points. That's impressive, because it means LeBron was able to do this basically on his own, with the assistance only of blue babies. That seems about right to me—LeBron had a very bad team that year, probably the worst team to ever win a finals (except for LeBron himself). Curry, meanwhile, was on one of the best NBA teams of all time. 162.158.79.175 20:34, 14 April 2024 (UTC)