Difference between revisions of "718: The Flake Equation"
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==Transcript== | ==Transcript== | ||
:The Flake Equation: | :The Flake Equation: | ||
− | :P = W<sub>P</sub> | + | :P = W<sub>P</sub> × (C<sub>R</sub> + M<sub>I</sub>) × T<sub>K</sub> × F<sub>0</sub> × F<sub>1</sub> × D<sub>T</sub> × A<sub>U</sub> ≈ 100,000 |
:Where: | :Where: | ||
− | :: W<sub>P</sub> = World Population (7,000,000) | + | ::W<sub>P</sub> = World Population (7,000,000) |
− | :: C<sub>R</sub> = Fraction of people who imagine an alien encounter because they're crazy or want to feel special (1/10,000) | + | ::C<sub>R</sub> = Fraction of people who imagine an alien encounter because they're crazy or want to feel special (1/10,000) |
− | :: M<sub>I</sub> = Fraction of people who misinterpret a physical or physiological experience as an alien sighting (1/10,000) | + | ::M<sub>I</sub> = Fraction of people who misinterpret a physical or physiological experience as an alien sighting (1/10,000) |
− | :: T<sub>K</sub> = Probability that they'll tell someone (1/10) | + | ::T<sub>K</sub> = Probability that they'll tell someone (1/10) |
− | :: F<sub>0</sub> = Average number of people they tell (10) | + | ::F<sub>0</sub> = Average number of people they tell (10) |
− | :: F<sub>1</sub> = Average number of people each friend tells this "firsthand" account (10) | + | ::F<sub>1</sub> = Average number of people each friend tells this "firsthand" account (10) |
− | :: D<sub>T</sub> = Probability that any details not fitting the narrative will be revised or forgotten in retelling (9/10) | + | ::D<sub>T</sub> = Probability that any details not fitting the narrative will be revised or forgotten in retelling (9/10) |
− | :: A<sub>U</sub> = Fraction of people with the means and motivation to share the story with a wider audience (blogs, forums, reporters) (1/100) | + | ::A<sub>U</sub> = Fraction of people with the means and motivation to share the story with a wider audience (blogs, forums, reporters) (1/100) |
:Even with conservative guesses for the values of the variables, this suggests there must be a ''huge'' number of credible-sounding alien sightings out there, available to anyone who wants to believe! | :Even with conservative guesses for the values of the variables, this suggests there must be a ''huge'' number of credible-sounding alien sightings out there, available to anyone who wants to believe! | ||
{{comic discussion}} | {{comic discussion}} | ||
[[Category:Math]] | [[Category:Math]] |
Revision as of 10:34, 6 November 2013
Explanation
The Flake equation is a parody of the Drake equation, which estimates the number of detectable extraterrestrial civilizations in the galaxy.
The title text refers to Fermi's Lack-of-a-Paradox as a parody of the Fermi paradox: The contradiction between the high estimated probable existence of extraterrestrial civilizations and the lack of establishing contact to such civilizations by humans.
Another comic parodying this equation is 384: The Drake Equation. The credibility of paranormal reports in general is revisited in 1235: Settled, which posits that if such phenomena were real they should have been unambiguously captured on camera by now.
Transcript
- The Flake Equation:
- P = WP × (CR + MI) × TK × F0 × F1 × DT × AU ≈ 100,000
- Where:
- WP = World Population (7,000,000)
- CR = Fraction of people who imagine an alien encounter because they're crazy or want to feel special (1/10,000)
- MI = Fraction of people who misinterpret a physical or physiological experience as an alien sighting (1/10,000)
- TK = Probability that they'll tell someone (1/10)
- F0 = Average number of people they tell (10)
- F1 = Average number of people each friend tells this "firsthand" account (10)
- DT = Probability that any details not fitting the narrative will be revised or forgotten in retelling (9/10)
- AU = Fraction of people with the means and motivation to share the story with a wider audience (blogs, forums, reporters) (1/100)
- Even with conservative guesses for the values of the variables, this suggests there must be a huge number of credible-sounding alien sightings out there, available to anyone who wants to believe!
Discussion
Anybody notice that the real product of the numbers he gives is 6.3 (10), not 100,000? 02:32, 16 April 2017 (UTC)
No, it's not - you've multiplied Cr and Mx when you should have added them. The real product is 126,000 = 100,000. 162.158.69.51
There was a later comic about our capabilities' precluding of UFO sightings and such. I may find it at some point. --Quicksilver (talk) 02:51, 20 August 2013 (UTC)
Settled
googlesearch=site:explainxkcd.com ufo
http://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php/1235:_Settled
Kevin McCready (talk) 13:25, 10 May 2014 (UTC)
Is there any significance to the word "flake"? Urban Dictionary says it stands for "unreliable person", but certainly not in context of alien sightings. --162.158.90.217 13:34, 26 August 2015 (UTC)
It's a portmanteau of "Drake" and "Fake". --172.68.10.94 10:58, 4 February 2017 (UTC)
- It's not actually a portmanteau, more like a play on words :) -- The Cat Lady (talk) 13:57, 19 August 2021 (UTC)
The transcript looks pretty complete to me? Why is it tagged incomplete? Mushrooms (talk) 07:50, 22 March 2022 (UTC)