678: Researcher Translation

Researcher Translation

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Title text: A technology that is '20 years away' will be 20 years away indefinitely.

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Explanation

This comic suggests a translation from the statements of the researcher of a potential new technology. For example, these statements might be found in an article in a popular science magazine which highlights some cutting-edge research. It reflects the idea that researchers tend to be too optimistic about the future of their research project.

"The fourth quarter of next year": Even if a technological development seems very close to completion, it could still be canceled by some authority other than the lead researcher. This might be due to poor management, or a poor business plan, or even a poor scientific basis which the researcher is hiding or ignoring.

"Five years": The researcher has solved the interesting scientific problems, and assumes that the concept could be picked up by a business, developed to be usable outside of a research lab, designed into a prototype, have a manufacturing process, marketed, and made available to consumers, in only five years. In reality, a lot of exciting-sounding technology may not reach consumers for many years because of difficulties in the business side of things.

"Ten years": Not only does the researcher assume that the business end of things will go smoothly, they also assume that the rest of their research will go smoothly. In reality, a lot of unforeseen problems could arise during research.

"25+ years": "It has not been conclusively proven impossible" indicates that it has been proven impossible in some context. The researcher simply refuses to accept the impossibility until the proof is conclusive.

"We're not really looking at market applications right now.": In contrast to the above chain of assumptions, in this case the researcher has a working technology but wants to keep it to themselves.

Title text: "20 years away indefinitely": Sometimes the technological or engineering challenges for a certain application seem like they could be overcome in 20 years, but in reality the challenges are very difficult. The more the challenges are studied, the harder they are found to be, although there is always hope that a few more advances will do it. An example is fusion power, which has been conceptualized since at least 1946 as a potentially unlimited source of clean energy, but remained an elusive achievement despite projects such as the National Ignition Facility and ITER. The first commercial plant is still indefinitely 20 years away.

A similar table was shown in 1497: New Products.

Transcript

If a researcher says a cool new technology should be available to consumers in...	What they mean is...
The fourth quarter of next year	The project will be canceled in six months.
Five years	I've solved the interesting research problems. The rest is just business, which is easy, right?
Ten years	We haven't finished inventing it yet, but when we do, it'll be awesome.
25+ years	It has not been conclusively proven impossible.
We're not really looking at market applications right now.	I like being the only one with a hovercar.

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Discussion

This does explain a lot, doesn't it? --Jolbucley (talk) 03:40, 29 January 2014 (UTC)

Why is this explanation so pessimistic, I don't think this is what Randall was trying to get at. - -- Vctr (talk) 01:18, 4 April 2015 (UTC) (please sign your comments with ~~~~)

By 2001, we should have lunar colonies and manned missions to the outer planets... Mountain Hikes (talk) 01:07, 17 December 2015 (UTC)

No in 2001 we should have had Spaceships capable of committing murder and regular flights to the moon. Not sure if you would consider that mission to Europa/Jupiter successful. 108.162.216.166 12:06, 2 August 2017 (UTC)

The first commercial fusion plant is indefinitely 20+ years away? We will ‘’’eventually’’’ get flying cars, lunar colonies, and energy-efficient commercial fusion plants, at least within this century. It has been heavily proven that commercial fusion plants will be technologically capable to deliver energy at a rate above 100% of the energy put into it. Sure, in December ‘09, it was indefinitely 20+ years, but now that estimate is now definite, as thirteen years have come by and research has been done. SilverTheTerribleMathematician (talk) 06:25, 8 December 2022 (UTC)

Humanity has made some development in our research of fusion technologies. The first fusion device was the H bomb, and now we have multiple designs which can controllably heat and pressurize heavy varieties of hydrogen enough to fuse into helium. You may be right that this moves fusion into the 10 year category of "not finished inventing yet".

I am more pessimistic, It is a long journey from momentary positive energy (more energy from fusion than from the laser that powered it, but not more than the energy needed to power the laser, and also not productively captured) to sustained power generation at scales similar to fission plants. Given the enormous difficulty of developing materials that can handle the heat and pressure and can capture the surplus energy to make it productive. These materials also have to cheap and abundant enough to compete with other energy sources and fulfill global demand.

Language is fun. while an indefinite amount of time can mean essentially *forever*, it can also just be an unspecified amount of time. It's never aliens-until some day (we hope) it is. Fusion power plants are forever 20+ years away-until some day (we hope) it's all ready except the business details.

69.204.108.174 01:54, 23 April 2026 (UTC)
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