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| | ==Explanation== | | ==Explanation== |
| − | This is a simple scatterplot showing how often the word "sustainable" has been used in English texts in the US each year. As can be seen, the y-axis is given a logarithmic scale, meaning that the apparently linear trend is actually exponential. [[Randall]] [[605: Extrapolating|humorously attempts to extend the graph]] to the point the frequency exceeds 100% about a century from now, which is obviously impossible (hence the quip that the word's usage is itself "unsustainable"). | + | This is a graph of the usage of the word "Sustainable" in English in the United States each year. And as you can see, [[Randall]] extends the graph to the point where sustainable will be used as every word. |
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| − | The use of the word "sustainable" has been increasing as people become more aware of the steadily increasing use of nonrenewable resources and need to ensure that the Earth's resources do not become totally exhausted, through sustainable development. {{w|Sustainable development}} refers to the practice of using resources that simultaneously aims to meet human needs while preserving the environment so that these needs can be met not only in the present time, but also for generations to come.
| + | Sustainable has been increasing in use as people of the US are concerned about making sure that Earth's resources are not totally exhausted in the near future by developing sustainable development. {{w|Sustainable development}} is a pattern of growth in which resource use aims to meet human needs while preserving the environment so that these needs can be met not only in the present, but also for generations to come. |
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| − | More realistically, the actual use of "sustainable" is likely to be logistic rather than exponential growth. A logistic curve (not to be confused with "logarithmic") describes a trend that at first appears to behave exponentially, but then tapers off and reaches a cap, as it is actually a curve leading up to an arbitrary mid-point 'origin' part way through the track and then levels back off again (in a doubly-reflected manner, typically) to reach a new plateau. This is demonstrated by the [https://books.google.com/ngrams/graph?content=sustainable&year_start=1940&year_end=2014&corpus=15&smoothing=3&share=&direct_url=t1%3B%2Csustainable%3B%2Cc0 Google ngrams graph of word usage for "sustainable"] ([https://books.google.com/ngrams/graph?content=sustainable&year_start=1940&year_end=2019&corpus=en-2019&smoothing=3 updated link]). Logistic growth is commonly used to model data that naturally increases exponentially but has a limiting factor, which in this case is the meaningfulness of text consisting entirely or mostly of a single word. Until we actually reach the logistic midpoint (''possibly'' at 50% usage, but very much depending upon other confounding factors and likely somewhat less in this actual case) the data might indeed look like they fit a log-plotted exponential curve.
| + | As Randall mentions in the title text, the 100 years it takes for the word sustainable to get to 100% usage is a lot longer than most of our non-renewable and non-sustainable resources will last on the Earth. |
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| − | As Randall somewhat depressingly mentions in the title text, the ~100 years that it will supposedly take for the word "sustainable" to become unsustainable is actually a lot longer than most of our nonrenewable resources will last on the Earth. The idea that ''all'' of the Earth's coal, oil, natural gas, etc. that has built up over the past millions of years may be completely gone within the century is unsettling.
| + | The graph is plotted with a logarithmic independent axis, meaning the line depicts exponential growth. Most people aren't used to reading these kind of graphs, so it may look like the increase is linear and one day we will wake up and find that the only word in our vocabulary is the word "Sustainable." More realistically, we are merely in the first phase of logistic growth, where use is rocketing up before leveling off. |
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| − | This comic was used in the 2018 book ''[https://books.google.ca/books?id=J6grDwAAQBAJ&pg=PA128&lpg=PA128&dq=enlightenment+now+xkcd&source=bl&ots=8LvAVHQU2_&sig=ACfU3U27rxPWl4N8-muk1eRSm0BMMqWoHA&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjOkIne-rTkAhUYs54KHRCZCHsQ6AEwEHoECAkQAQ#v=onepage&q=enlightenment%20now%20xkcd&f=false| Enlightenment Now: The Case for Reason, Science, Humanism, and Progress]'' by Steven Pinker as it discusses the concept of sustainable energy.
| + | Extrapolation of data has also appeared in the following comics [[605: Extrapolating]], [[1204: Detail]] and [[1281: Minifigs]]. |
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| − | Extrapolation of data has also appeared in the following comics [[605: Extrapolating]], [[1204: Detail]] and [[1281: Minifigs]]. And yes, "sustainable" has appeared in every paragraph so far. | |
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| − | The depicted increasing tendency in the relative frequency of the word "sustainable" among other words is also apparent within this very page.
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| − | It is observable, that the paragraphs get shorter, thus "sustainable" constitutes an increasingly higher percentage of the text.
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| − | In the end the article might end up only consisting of simple sentences using "sustainable".
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| − | This would be the opposite of "sustainable":
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| − | Unsustainable.
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| | ==Transcript== | | ==Transcript== |
| − | :[A large two-axis scatterplot graph with a caption below. The y-axis displays percentages on a logarithmic scale from 0.000001% to 1,000%, and is labeled "Frequency of use of the word "sustainable" in US English text, as a percentage of all words, by year. Source: Google NGrams." The x-axis displays years from 1950 to 2140, and is labeled "Year". Plotted data points show a high linear correlation (effectively exponential due to being a log scale), ranging from approximately 0.000005% in 1960 to approximately 0.003% in 2012. A linear trend line is drawn through the data points, and is extrapolated to the end of the graph. Four points on this trend line are marked and labeled:] | + | :Frequency of use of the word "sustainable" in US English text, as a percentage of all words, by year. Source: Google NGrams. |
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| − | :(2012, ~0.003%): Present Day
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| − | :(2036, ~0.03%): 2036: "Sustainable" occurs an average of once per page
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| − | :(2061, ~0.5%): 2061: "Sustainable" occurs an average of once per sentence
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| − | :(2109, 100%): 2109: All sentences are just the word "sustainable" over and over.
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| − | :[The trend line continues past the year 2109, exceeding 100% and breaking up into question marks.] | + | :[A two-axis graph with percentages increasing logarithmically (from 0.000001% to 1,000%) on the Y-axis, and years progressing linearly (from 1950 to 2140) on the X-axis. Actual data points show a high correlation from 0.00001 at 1950 to 0.001% at present day. Extrapolated data points exist for the future. 2036 (approx. 0.1%): "sustainable" occurs an average of once per page. 2061(approx. 1%): "sustainable" occurs an average of once per sentence. 2109 (approx. 100%) All sentences are just the word "sustainable" over and over.] |
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| − | :[Caption below the panel:]
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| | :The word "sustainable" is unsustainable. | | :The word "sustainable" is unsustainable. |
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| | {{comic discussion}} | | {{comic discussion}} |
| − | [[Category:Line graphs]] | + | [[Category:Charts]] |
| | [[Category:Extrapolation]] | | [[Category:Extrapolation]] |
| − | [[Category:Google]]
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