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| Earthquake Prediction Flowchart |
 Title text: At least people who make religious predictions of the apocalypse have an answer to the question 'Why didn't you predict any of the other ones that happened recently?' |
Explanation
The comic purports to depict a flowchart demonstrating whether you should believe someone claiming to be able to predict earthquakes. However, this "flowchart" immediately leads to a hard NO, with a brief description on why. Earthquakes happen all the time, so if someone claims they can predict them, we'd have their methodology proven or disproven almost immediately. And, if it's reliable, seismologists would be parading it around as a revolutionary discovery. Thus, there should be no remaining need to consult a flowchart on the matter. Another interperatiation is that seismologists will get mad over claiming useless facts.
In this context it is noteworthy that six Italian seismologists, volcanologists and engineers were charged for manslaughter in the aftermath of the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake, on the basis of having been "falsely reassuring". Six days before the earthquake killed 308 people, they convened in a committee meeting, and decided that there was no reason to warn the population over the highly tentative possibility that minor geological activity was a sign that something more major might be imminent. Seven years after the quake, they were finally cleared of any wrongdoing. At other times, 'warnings' have been issued that did not clearly precede any actual disasters, and there are clearly many arguments about whether or not to risk "crying wolf" on flimsy evidence, especially when there is always the confusing possibility of coincidentally warning about a different 'wolf' from the real one that was not spotted in time.
This strip is similar to 1723: Meteorite Identification, as a one-step flowchart ending in a firm no.
The title text compares those who claim to predict earthquakes to those who claim to predict the end of the world (based on their religion, for example). A prominent argument against those who claim to be able to predict non-apocalyptic disasters like earthquakes is that the "predictor" has not predicted any such disasters prior to their claim. An apocalypse, however, is not something that has occurred before[citation needed], and generally only happens once. Thus, unlike an earthquake predictor, anyone predicting an apocalypse will not need to explain any failures (false negatives) to predict previous apocalypses. People who have previously predicted an apocalypse and failed to have it come about (i.e. a false positive), should be exceptions, but such people never seem to lose credibility with their more devout followers.
Transcript
- [Caption above a flowchart:]
- Someone is claiming to predict the exact date of a future earthquake.
- Should you listen?
- [At the top of the flowchart is a wide diamond with the following text:]
- Start
- [An arrow points down to a rectangle with the following text:]
- NO
- (There are big earthquakes constantly, so if anyone ever does figure this out, it will be immediately obvious that their method works and the world's seismologists will not shut up about it.
- You won't need this flowchart.)
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