Editing 2379: Probability Comparisons
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| rowspan="2" | 0.5% | | rowspan="2" | 0.5% | ||
| An {{w|NBA}} team down by 30 at halftime wins | | An {{w|NBA}} team down by 30 at halftime wins | ||
− | | This calculation, along with all related ones, | + | | This calculation, along with all related ones, use the source [http://stats.inpredictable.com/nba/wpCalc.php NBA Win Probability Calculator]. Entering Q2, 0:00, and -30 into the calculator yields 0.6% . |
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| You get 4 M&Ms and they're all brown or yellow | | You get 4 M&Ms and they're all brown or yellow | ||
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| {{w|LeBron James}} guesses your birthday, if each guess costs one free throw and he loses if he misses | | {{w|LeBron James}} guesses your birthday, if each guess costs one free throw and he loses if he misses | ||
− | | LeBron James' free-throw odds are ~73% . The odds of him winning on the first round are 1/365, for the second | + | | LeBron James' free-throw odds are ~73% . The odds of him winning on the first round are 1/365, for the second (1/364)(0.73), for the third (1/363)(0.73)<sup>2</sup>... Summing all of these from 1 to 365 gives us his total odds of winning at any point in the game are ≈ 1.022% . |
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| rowspan="2" | 1.5% | | rowspan="2" | 1.5% | ||
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| You share a birthday with a {{w|Backstreet Boys|Backstreet Boy}} | | You share a birthday with a {{w|Backstreet Boys|Backstreet Boy}} | ||
− | |Each of the five Backstreet Boys has a different birthday, so the odds that you share a birthday with one is 5/365 ≈ 1.3% . | + | |Each of the five Backstreet Boys has a different birthday, so the odds that you share a birthday with one is 5/365.25 ≈ 1.3% . |
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| 2% | | 2% | ||
| You guess someone's card on the first try | | You guess someone's card on the first try | ||
− | | There are 52 cards in a normal deck of cards (excluding jokers), so the probability is 1/52, which is approximately 1.9%. | + | | There are 52 cards in a normal deck of cards (excluding jokers), so the probability is 1/52, which is approximately 0.019 (1.9%). |
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| rowspan="2"| 3% | | rowspan="2"| 3% | ||
| You guess 5 coin tosses and get them all right | | You guess 5 coin tosses and get them all right | ||
− | | The chance of correctly predicting a coin toss is 0.5 | + | | The chance of correctly predicting a coin toss is 0.5. The chance of predicting 5 in a row is 0.5<sup>5</sup>, or 3.125%. |
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| Steph Curry wins that birthday free throw game | | Steph Curry wins that birthday free throw game | ||
− | | Swap out 0.73 for 0.91 in the above calculations to find Steph Curry's odds of winning. This sum yields ~3. | + | | Swap out 0.73 for 0.91 in the above calculations to find Steph Curry's odds of winning. This sum yields ~3.13% . |
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| rowspan="3"| 4% | | rowspan="3"| 4% | ||
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| You share a birthday with two {{w|US Senator}}s | | You share a birthday with two {{w|US Senator}}s | ||
− | | At the time this comic was published, 15 days were birthdays for more than one Senator, and 15/365 ≈ 4%.<ref>Rand Paul and John Thune - January 7<br/> | + | | At the time this comic was published, 15 days were birthdays for more than one Senator, and 15/365.25 ≈ 4%.<ref>Rand Paul and John Thune - January 7<br/> |
Chris Van Hollen and Roy Blunt - January 10<br/> | Chris Van Hollen and Roy Blunt - January 10<br/> | ||
Tina Smith and James Lankford - March 4<br/> | Tina Smith and James Lankford - March 4<br/> | ||
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| You roll a natural 20 | | You roll a natural 20 | ||
− | | A natural 20 indicates a critical hit in the {{w|Dungeons & Dragons}} role playing game. "Natural" means that it is the number showing when rolling a d20 (a 20-sided die), as opposed to an overall total of 20 when counting the die roll plus modifiers. There are twenty sides to a d20 die | + | | A natural 20 indicates a critical hit in the {{w|Dungeons & Dragons}} role playing game. "Natural" means that it is the number showing when rolling a d20 (a 20-sided die), as opposed to an overall total of 20 when counting the die roll plus modifiers. There are twenty sides to a d20 die. 1/20 = 0.05 = 5% |
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| 6% | | 6% | ||
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| 7% | | 7% | ||
| LeBron James gets two free throws and misses both | | LeBron James gets two free throws and misses both | ||
− | | James' career free throw percentage is 73%, so the probability of a miss is | + | | James' career free throw percentage is 73%, so the probability of a miss is 27%. The probability of 2 misses is (27%)<sup>2</sup>, which is about 7%. |
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| 8% | | 8% | ||
| You correctly guess someone's card given 4 tries | | You correctly guess someone's card given 4 tries | ||
− | | Assuming you guess four different cards, 4/52 = 0.0769 ≈ 8 | + | | Assuming you guess four different cards, 4/52 = 0.0769 ≈ 8% . |
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| 9% | | 9% | ||
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| rowspan="2"|10% | | rowspan="2"|10% | ||
| You draw 5 cards and get the Ace of Spades | | You draw 5 cards and get the Ace of Spades | ||
− | | There are 52 cards in a normal deck of cards (excluding jokers), and the Ace of Spades is one of them.{{Citation needed}} The chances of getting the card is 1 - 51/52 * 50/51 * 49/50 * 48/49 * 47/48 which is approximately 0.096, which rounds to the given 0.1 or 10%. | + | | There are 52 cards in a normal deck of cards (excluding jokers), and the Ace of Spades is one of them.{{Citation needed}} The chances of getting the card is 1 - 51/52 * 50/51 * 49/50 * 48/49 * 47/48 which is approximately 0.096, which rounds to the given 0.1 or 10%. <!-- make into math format --> <!-- maybe later --> |
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| There's a {{w|Moment magnitude scale|magnitude}} 8+ earthquake in the next month | | There's a {{w|Moment magnitude scale|magnitude}} 8+ earthquake in the next month | ||
− | | Note that, unlike other earthquake examples, this does not specify where the earthquake occurs | + | | Note that, unlike other earthquake examples, this does not specify where the earthquake occurs. |
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| 11% | | 11% | ||
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| rowspan="3"| 33% | | rowspan="3"| 33% | ||
| A randomly chosen Star Wars movie (Episodes I-IX) has "of the" in the title | | A randomly chosen Star Wars movie (Episodes I-IX) has "of the" in the title | ||
− | | | + | | Episodes II (Attack of the Clones), III (Revenge of the Sith), and VI (Return of the Jedi) are the movies. This gives the odds of 3/9 ≈ 33% . |
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| You win the Monty Hall sports car by picking a door and refusing to switch | | You win the Monty Hall sports car by picking a door and refusing to switch |