Editing Talk:2107: Launch Risk
Please sign your posts with ~~~~ |
Warning: You are not logged in. Your IP address will be publicly visible if you make any edits. If you log in or create an account, your edits will be attributed to your username, along with other benefits.
The edit can be undone.
Please check the comparison below to verify that this is what you want to do, and then save the changes below to finish undoing the edit.
Latest revision | Your text | ||
Line 1: | Line 1: | ||
<!--Please sign your posts with ~~~~ and don't delete this text. New comments should be added at the bottom.--> | <!--Please sign your posts with ~~~~ and don't delete this text. New comments should be added at the bottom.--> | ||
− | Gave a | + | Gave a brief explanation, but I think it would be good to mention probability based logical fallacies and https://what-if.xkcd.com/55/. Don’t know how to link without it looking bad. This is my first page! [[User:Netherin5|Netherin5]] ([[User talk:Netherin5|talk]]) 17:28, 4 February 2019 (UTC) |
Revised to a more extensive explanation including the fallacy that the second astronaut apparently realizes in mid-reply. [[User:SteveMB|SteveMB]] ([[User talk:SteveMB|talk]]) | Revised to a more extensive explanation including the fallacy that the second astronaut apparently realizes in mid-reply. [[User:SteveMB|SteveMB]] ([[User talk:SteveMB|talk]]) | ||
Line 10: | Line 10: | ||
Would be nice to add something about risk perception of common vs. uncommon and dramatic vs. more mundane seeming events. e.g. in US, lifetime chance of death from flu, 1 in 63; from automobile accident 1 in 84; from lightning 1 in 79,746; from shark attack, 1 in 3,748,067 https://www.floridamuseum.ufl.edu/shark-attacks/odds/compare-risk/death/ [[Special:Contributions/108.162.245.166|108.162.245.166]] 18:52, 4 February 2019 (UTC) | Would be nice to add something about risk perception of common vs. uncommon and dramatic vs. more mundane seeming events. e.g. in US, lifetime chance of death from flu, 1 in 63; from automobile accident 1 in 84; from lightning 1 in 79,746; from shark attack, 1 in 3,748,067 https://www.floridamuseum.ufl.edu/shark-attacks/odds/compare-risk/death/ [[Special:Contributions/108.162.245.166|108.162.245.166]] 18:52, 4 February 2019 (UTC) | ||
− | |||
− | |||
The risk to be killed as an astronaut should be add somewhere (it is easy to find number of death/total number of astronaut) if someone want to make the morbid calculation. [[User:Xavier Combelle|Xavier Combelle]] ([[User talk:Xavier Combelle|talk]]) 18:55, 4 February 2019 (UTC) | The risk to be killed as an astronaut should be add somewhere (it is easy to find number of death/total number of astronaut) if someone want to make the morbid calculation. [[User:Xavier Combelle|Xavier Combelle]] ([[User talk:Xavier Combelle|talk]]) 18:55, 4 February 2019 (UTC) | ||
From some impatient Googling and Wikipedia scanning there have been just over 360 people in space and 18 deaths (excepting training including Apollo 1). That puts the death rate at just over 3%. | From some impatient Googling and Wikipedia scanning there have been just over 360 people in space and 18 deaths (excepting training including Apollo 1). That puts the death rate at just over 3%. | ||
− | |||
These were mostly Shuttle as the crews were larger. However,the title is Launch Risk, so the figure would be less than half that, but still about 1.5%. Furthermore, if you ignore the Space Planes the Launch Risk is probably very low. [[User:RIIW - Ponder it|RIIW - Ponder it]] ([[User talk:RIIW - Ponder it|talk]]) 19:07, 4 February 2019 (UTC) | These were mostly Shuttle as the crews were larger. However,the title is Launch Risk, so the figure would be less than half that, but still about 1.5%. Furthermore, if you ignore the Space Planes the Launch Risk is probably very low. [[User:RIIW - Ponder it|RIIW - Ponder it]] ([[User talk:RIIW - Ponder it|talk]]) 19:07, 4 February 2019 (UTC) | ||
− | |||
− | |||
− | |||
− | |||
− | |||
− | |||
− | |||
− | |||
− | |||
− | |||
− | |||
− | |||
− | |||
− | |||
− | |||
− | |||
− | |||
− | |||
− |