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− | I am not a statistician. Odds ratios in medicine are usually expressed in a linear manner. Thus, the logarithmic scale for the x-axis is curious. But given the underlying probability of being hit by space debris approaches an asymptote of a near-zero actual probability, perhaps a logarithmic scale is simply correct? It is clearly a deliberate design element, and one that is a major part of the comic.
| + | Odds ratios in medicine are usually expressed in a linear manner. Thus, the logarithmic scale for the x-axis is a curious departure. It is clearly a deliberate design element, and one that is a major part of the comic. |
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− | So those more skilled in stats and explaining xkcd humor will add a few sentences on this matter to the main description! Speculation - perhaps logarithmic is "accurate" within the nonsense assumptions, and so there for consistency? Or perhaps it is a deliberate (by Randall) additional "error" (by the supposed "authors" of the study), and thus the presence of a logarithmic scale compounds the nonsense, as it were, exponentially? | + | So those more skilled in divining implicit xkcd humor than me, I will hope will add a few sentences just on this to the main description! Personally, I have no idea what it means! Speculation - perhaps logarithmic is "accurate" within the nonsense assumptions, and so there for consistency? Or perhaps it is a deliberate (by Randall) additional error (by the supposed "authors" of the study), and thus the presence of a logarithmic scale compounds the nonsense, as it were, exponentially? |
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− | ;Linear correlation?
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− | I'm wondering how the correlation between time spent outside and chance of getting hit could be anything other than linear. If 1 hour outside gives you X probability, surely 2 hours outside would be 2*X probability. [[User:FishDawg|FishDawg]] ([[User talk:FishDawg|talk]]) 05:37, 7 April 2022 (UTC)
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− | :Sort of, but probabilities don't exactly behave like that. On that analysis, given enough time outside, the probability would pass 1 and keep on rising. But a probability of 1 is absolute certainty, so probabilities higher than that are meaningless. I believe the comic is consistent with your assumption that the rate is constant -- the probability of getting hit during an hour is the same no matter which hour it is. It seems reasonable to me, too. Then after 1 hour, your probability of remaining unhit is 0.999999999 or whatever. After 2 hours, it's the probability of remaining unhit in the first hour times the probability of remaining unhit in the second hour, 0.999999999^2. After 3 hours, it's 0.999999999^3, and so on. So the probability of *ever* getting hit actually follows an exponential curve. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.245.173|108.162.245.173]] 16:32, 8 April 2022 (UTC)
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− | ::(I mean, the rate might not be constant not on a time scale of decades or more. You could go from a society that can't launch spacecraft at all to launching a few and then many, or from a society that just lets 'em fall to one that takes responsibility for moving large pieces into a parking orbit or a controlled deorbit, or from a society that takes responsibility to a charred ruin pocked with circles of radioactive glass, or from that to the rise of Atlantean mages from the tunnels of Shambhala whose mana shall deorbit all things, as the History Channel hath prophesied. But anyway.) [[Special:Contributions/108.162.245.173|108.162.245.173]] 16:33, 8 April 2022 (UTC)
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− | So much confusion about the comic and the explanation read like a bunch of individual comments on top of each other. I took the liberty of rewriting the whole thing (actually, I just wanted to explain Monte Carlo simulations better but then things escalated). I'm fairly certain that I understand the joke of the comic - Randall was simply cramming as much misuse of statistical methods as possible into one "study". The explanation is now rewritten in a pattern of "method->what method is used for->how it's misleading here". I'm still not happy with all the details, but I hope the explanation as a whole makes more sense now and that I managed to write understandably. [[User:Rebekka|Rebekka]] ([[User talk:Rebekka|talk]]) 05:27, 1 July 2023 (UTC)
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