Editing 1321: Cold

{{comic
| number    = 1321
| date      = January 24, 2014
| title     = Cold
| image     = cold.png
| titletext = 'You see the same pattern all over. Take Detroit--' 'Hold on. Why do you know all these statistics offhand?' 'Oh, um, no idea. I definitely spend my evenings hanging out with friends, and not curating a REALLY NEAT database of temperature statistics. Because, pshh, who would want to do that, right? Also, snowfall records.'
}}

==Explanation==
In this comic, White Knit Cap Guy and Black Knit Cap Guy are walking outside in sub 0&nbsp;°F (-17.8&nbsp;°C). White Knit Cap Guy complains about the '''brutal''' cold and uses it as evidence that {{w|global warming}} is not real. Black Knit Cap Guy explains that this kind of weather used to happen all the time back before the year 2000, showing that global warming is, in fact, very real.

This is illustrated in panel two by a graph showing the number of days with sub 0&nbsp;°F as a function of year from 1970 to 2013 in the city of {{w|St. Louis}}, (where we learn that White Knit Cap Guy is from). It shows that these days used to be rather common between 1970 and 1999, only to be completely absent for the next 14 years until and including 2013. A [http://www.rcc-acis.org/climatecentral source link] for this graph is provided (though as of June 2014, the link is dead - see [[#Trivia|Trivia]] below).

Black Knit Cap Guy uses this graph to explain that not a single day like this has happened since 2000, until here in 2014 where a {{w|polar vortex}} pushed the temperature down below zero again for two days. This caused many people to react as if it had never been this cold before. He goes on to explain that since this weather is now unusual, we perceive it as being more cold, even though this was a common temperature to reach in past decades. However, White Knit Cap Guy continues to insist that it is too cold, demonstrating he learned nothing from their talk. Subzero {{w|Fahrenheit}} temperatures are very cold to be out in. See for instance the first panel of [[526: Converting to Metric]].

In the last panel, in a future St. Louis, a [[Cueball]] discovers a thin sheet of ice, suggesting the temperature has fallen just below 32&nbsp;°F (0&nbsp;°C), the freezing point of water. The suggestion here is that the environment has warmed to such an extent that temperatures below 32&nbsp;degrees F are very unusual, and the future Cueball repeats the same short-term fallacy that such "extreme cold" disproves global warming. Someone off-panel, presumably another Black Knit Cap Guy, sighs as the cycle continues.

The comic reacts to a simplified view of {{w|global warming}} by amateurs, including media, who fail to understand (or choose to ignore) the difference between {{w|climate}} and {{w|weather}}. Short, random weather fluctuations like the polar vortex are taken as examples or counter-examples of climate change and global warming. To understand climate change, one must look at global (not local) and long-term (not short-term) temperature trends.

Debates on the theory of global warming/climate change often center on whether the current warming trend is primarily caused by humans or is a natural change, as has happened in the past. Within the scientific community, there is an overwhelming consensus that the current trend is {{w|Human impact on the environment|anthropogenic}} (i.e. man-made), but many in the general public (including many politicians) are hesitant to accept this. There is clearly no doubt about where [[Randall]] stands on this debate, as many of his comics and blog posts continue to plead for humanity to do something about the ''man-made'' global warming trend - especially in comic [[1379: 4.5 Degrees]].

The title text suggests that gathering data about global warming is time-consuming and is the kind of stuff only a real nerd would do. Most people would rather hang out with friends, or at least spend their time with some more fun nerd activity. Randall has been known to use the title text to poke fun at himself over how much time he has spent researching topics and more generally how geeky his interests tend to be. Although the title text tries to deny this geeky behavior, he cannot help himself at the end by mentioning another ''interesting'' climate subject: ''Snowfall records''.

Climate change, especially global warming, is a [[:Category:Climate change|recurring theme]] in xkcd.

Knit caps have only been used a few times in xkcd, most prominently on [[1350:_Lorenz#Knit_Cap_Girl|Knit Cap Girl]] in [[1350: Lorenz]], see her section for more details. At the top of the huge chart in [[1732: Earth Temperature Timeline]], also referring to global warming a guy with a white knit cap similar to White Knit Cap Guy can be seen freezing between New York and Boston.

==Transcript==
:[It's cold, two Guys wearing knit caps (one knit cap is white the other black) are walking outside and the White Knit Cap Guy is shivering.]
:White Knit Cap Guy: It's '''''brutal''''' out. So much for global warming, huh?
:Black Knit Cap Guy: ''*sigh*'' This used to happen all the time.
:White Knit Cap Guy: What?

:[A dot plot showing number of days with lows below zero Fahrenheit by year since 1970.]
:Black Knit Cap Guy (off-screen): You're from St. Louis, right?
:Black Knit Cap Guy (off-screen): On average, it used to get below 0 °F there a handful of days per year.
:Black Knit Cap Guy (off-screen): But you haven't had a day like that since the nineties.
:[Above the dot plot to the left is a label in a black frame:]
:Days with lows < 0°F
:[Below the dot plot are written the years:]
:1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 
:[Below again is written in small letters:]
:Source: rcc-acis.org/climatecentral

:[Black Knit Cap Guy has stopped walking.]
:Black Knit Cap Guy: Then, in 2014, when the first polar vortex hit, it dipped below zero for two days.
:Black Knit Cap Guy: And everyone freaked out

:[They continue walking.]
:Black Knit Cap Guy: because what used to be normal
:Black Knit Cap Guy: now feels too cold.
:White Knit Cap Guy: It ''is'' too cold!

:[Above the last panel is written in a black frame:]
:The Future:
:[Cueball is pointing at a patch of ice.]
:Cueball: Look at this—'''''ice!''''' In '''''St. Louis!''''' So much for global warming.
:Person off-screen: ''*sigh*''

==Trivia==
*The link to the source rcc-acis.org/climatecentral is dead. [http://www.rcc-acis.org/ rcc-acis.org/] leads to the home page of ACIS which stands for ''Applied Climate Information System'' and this page is still on-line. But it seems like the ''climatecentral'' part of the source link, is now relocated to {{w|Climate Central|Climate Central's}} own web page: [http://www.climatecentral.org/ climatecentral.org/].
*[http://assets.climatecentral.org/pdfs/TVMFrigidNights2014_stlouis_med.jpg The graph] can still be found in Climate Central's assets. The graph is used to illustrate the point in the following article: ''[http://www.climatecentral.org/news/extreme-cold-events-in-a-climate-context-16931 Extreme Cold is Becoming More Rare]'' were similar graphs are shown or referenced for many other US cities.
*From the graph the following info can be found:
**During the 30 years before 2000 there were 89 days with subzero Fahrenheit temperatures, averaging almost three a year.
**During that period there were only one occurrence where there were two years in a row with '''no''' subzero days. This was then followed by a gap of 14 years without.
**The maximum was 13 subzero days in 1984, but no less than three years had more than 10 subzero days.
**As these record years are all in the 8-year period from 1977 to 1984, no less than 52 of these 89 subzero days occurred in those years.
**Here are the number of days from 1970 to 2000 as read of the graph:
***1970 - 4; 1971 - 0; 1972 - 4; 1973 - 0; 1974 - 4; 1975 - 0; 1976 - 1; 1977 - 11; 1978 - 5; 1979 - 8; 1980 - 1; 1981 - 3; 1982 - 11; 1983 - 0; 1984 - 13; 1985 - 2; 1986 - 1; 1987 - 0; 1988 - 1; 1989 - 0; 1990 - 5; 1991 - 0; 1992 - 0; 1993 - 1; 1994 - 3; 1995 - 0; 1996 - 3; 1997 - 6; 1998 - 0; 1999 - 2; 2000 - 0;
***Compared with the graph in the link above, there is one mistake in Randall's version, as there were two days not only one day in 1976 according to the on-line graph.
===NOAA data for St. Louis===
'''Note''' that this is not the same data set as mentioned in xkcd as this is regarding '''freezing''' days and not '''subzero''' days!

With the full [http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/lsx/climate/stl/temp/temp_stl_ranked_32_0_occurrence.xls excel dataset] of the number of freezing days (i.e. below 32&nbsp;°F) as obtained from the {{w|National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration}}'s homepage [http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lsx/?n=cli_archive NOAA] you get the following plot:

[[Image:stl-freeze-days-since-1874.png]]

*Blue points: Number of freezing days (<32&nbsp;°F) for that year
*Red points: Number of freezing days averaged over 10 years (to make trending more readable)
*X-axis is the year (1874..2013)
*Y-axis is the number of days temperature is below 32&nbsp;°F for St. Louis

From the same dataset [http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/lsx/climate/stl/temp/temp_stl_ranked_32_0_occurrence.xls excel dataset] we can also get the number of sub-zero days i.e. below 0&nbsp;°F (which are those mentioned in the XKCD strip) - plotting those and you get the following plot:

'''Note''' that this '''IS the same''' data set as mentioned in XKCD. This is '''subzero''' days!

[[Image:stl noaa days below 0F.png]]

*Blue points: Number of sub-zero days (<0&nbsp;°F) for that year
*Red points: Number of freezing days averaged over 10 years (to make trending more readable)
*X-axis is the year (1874..2013)
*Y-axis is the number of days temperature is below 0&nbsp;°F for St. Louis

While there were a number of very cold years with outliers in the 1970s - then the clear overall trend is still that there are fewer days with cold weather over the years.

So while '''weather is different every year''' (which is also illustrated by the outliers) the '''climate is defined by the long term trend''' - which is the point of this cartoon.

{{comic discussion}}

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