Editing 1985: Meteorologist
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===Answering the meteorologists’ questions=== | ===Answering the meteorologists’ questions=== | ||
− | Management would certainly answer the mathematician's questions! The questions themselves have been asked of meteorologists before | + | Management would certainly answer the mathematician's questions! The questions themselves have been asked of meteorologists before, and NOAA has published relevant answers for [https://www.weather.gov/ffc/pop probability of precipitation], as well as [https://www.weather.gov/bgm/forecast_terms timing and the meanings of particular forecast words]. The naming is also addressed [https://www.weather.gov/media/ajk/brochures/ConvectivevsStratiform.pdf here]. |
− | Regarding probability of precipitation, NOAA forecasts give the probability that it will rain at all at any given point in an area. To rephrase it, it is the probability of rain occurring '''at all''' within a forecast area multiplied by the percentage of area affected by the rain. The "forecast area" is a clearly defined area of land and can be seen in the map of any official | + | Regarding probability of precipitation, NOAA forecasts give the probability that it will rain at all at any given point in an area. To rephrase it, it is the probability of rain occurring '''at all''' within a forecast area multiplied by the percentage of area affected by the rain. The "forecast area" is a clearly defined area of land and can be seen in the map of any official National Weather Service forecast. [https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=34.0732&lon=-118.3963 Here is an example]. |
Regarding the timing of the forecast, an hourly forecast gives the probability for each particular hour, stretching from the time listed to right before the next hour listed. So, the forecast for noon describes the time period from noon to 1pm. The forecasts for individual hours can be correlated; for this reason, the NOAA generates forecasts that stretch over longer time periods, giving a useful estimate for that time range. Thus, the chance of rain for "Today" specifically means: what is the chance of it raining at any given location during any time between 6am and 6pm? | Regarding the timing of the forecast, an hourly forecast gives the probability for each particular hour, stretching from the time listed to right before the next hour listed. So, the forecast for noon describes the time period from noon to 1pm. The forecasts for individual hours can be correlated; for this reason, the NOAA generates forecasts that stretch over longer time periods, giving a useful estimate for that time range. Thus, the chance of rain for "Today" specifically means: what is the chance of it raining at any given location during any time between 6am and 6pm? |