Editing 2107: Launch Risk
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This comic deals with the faulty application of general statistics based on a large population, such as all Americans, to specific situations with vastly different statistics, such as astronauts. | This comic deals with the faulty application of general statistics based on a large population, such as all Americans, to specific situations with vastly different statistics, such as astronauts. | ||
| − | A manned rocket ship is about to be launched into space. Mission control counts down from "T-minus 20," where "T" stands for the time at which the rocket is scheduled to launch. In the capsule, one astronaut asks another how they are feeling. The second admits that they are nervous. The first one offers a supposedly reassuring observation that they are more likely to be struck by lightning than to be selected to become an astronaut. Such comparisons are commonly used to illustrate that a particular probability is very small, and therefore not worth worrying about. | + | A manned rocket ship is about to be launched into space. Mission control counts down from "T-minus 20," where "T" stands for the time at which the rocket is scheduled to launch. In the capsule, one astronaut asks another how they are feeling. The second admits that they are nervous. The first one offers a supposedly reassuring observation that they are more likely to be struck by lightning than to be selected to become an astronaut. Such comparisons are commonly used to illustrate that a particular probability is very small, and therefore not worth worrying about. |
| − | The second astronaut is about to agree that they have a good point, but then realizes the problem with their argument: the likelihood of being ''selected as an astronaut'' is a moot point, because they both ''already'' '''''are''''' astronauts. The comparison ignores the relevant concern, which is the danger involved in ''being'' an astronaut and launching into space. | + | The second astronaut is about to agree that they have a good point, but then realizes the problem with their argument: the likelihood of being ''selected as an astronaut'' is a moot point, because they both ''already'' '''''are''''' astronauts. The comparison ignores the relevant concern, which is the danger involved in ''being'' an astronaut and launching into space. The second astronaut's nervousness is understandable as space missions are historically quite dangerous, and have numerous avenues for potentially fatal failure, certainly far beyond the minuscule risk of being struck by lightning, approximately [https://www.weather.gov/safety/lightning-odds 1 in 14,600 throughout your entire life]. |
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| − | The second astronaut's nervousness is understandable as space missions are historically quite dangerous, and have numerous avenues for potentially fatal failure, certainly far beyond the minuscule risk of being struck by lightning, approximately [https://www.weather.gov/safety/lightning-odds 1 in 14,600 throughout your entire life]. | ||
The title text creates additional confusion by referencing another common statistical reference point, the probability of dying in a shark attack. In addition to shark attacks being uncommon, they are also less likely to kill their victim than is commonly assumed. Still, while shark attacks are more frequently fatal than rocket launches, this comparison is once again useless, as the astronaut is not in any danger of sharks, but is literal seconds from launching into space. The astronaut is presumably not especially reassured by the "pretty high" survival rate. | The title text creates additional confusion by referencing another common statistical reference point, the probability of dying in a shark attack. In addition to shark attacks being uncommon, they are also less likely to kill their victim than is commonly assumed. Still, while shark attacks are more frequently fatal than rocket launches, this comparison is once again useless, as the astronaut is not in any danger of sharks, but is literal seconds from launching into space. The astronaut is presumably not especially reassured by the "pretty high" survival rate. | ||
| − | Of the 557 people who who | + | Of the 557 people who who have been in Earth orbit, 18 (3%) have died in related accidents, not specifically at launch ([https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_spaceflight-related_accidents_and_incidents List of spaceflight-related accidents and incidents], [https://www.worldspaceflight.com/bios/stats.php Astronaut/Cosmonaut Statistics]). Of the 93 incidents logged for 2018 in the [http://www.sharkattackfile.net/index.htm Global Shark Attack File], 4 (4.3%) were fatal, but the statistic has been higher in the past when there was likely less education against provoking sharks. |
A large metal rocket, such as depicted would be more likely to be struck by lightning than nearby structures. However launch controllers generally monitor weather carefully to reduce the chances of attempting to launch when lightning is likely. | A large metal rocket, such as depicted would be more likely to be struck by lightning than nearby structures. However launch controllers generally monitor weather carefully to reduce the chances of attempting to launch when lightning is likely. | ||
