Editing 2370: Prediction
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==Explanation== | ==Explanation== | ||
| + | {{incomplete|There is definitely not a 50/50 chance this was created by a BOT. Please mention here why this explanation isn't complete. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}} | ||
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This comic is about misunderstanding {{w|probability}}. Sometimes people will incorrectly assume that if two events are possible, and one of them is more likely than the other to occur, then the first event WILL occur; or, that if one names two or more outcomes they are equally likely to occur when in fact they might have different probabilities. | This comic is about misunderstanding {{w|probability}}. Sometimes people will incorrectly assume that if two events are possible, and one of them is more likely than the other to occur, then the first event WILL occur; or, that if one names two or more outcomes they are equally likely to occur when in fact they might have different probabilities. | ||
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Some don't like probability statements because they are not definite and therefore cannot be proven wrong. For example, if a probability statement says "event A has a 1% probability of happening" and event A actually happens, that does not prove the statement wrong, because the statement admits of the possibility of event A happening. | Some don't like probability statements because they are not definite and therefore cannot be proven wrong. For example, if a probability statement says "event A has a 1% probability of happening" and event A actually happens, that does not prove the statement wrong, because the statement admits of the possibility of event A happening. | ||
| β | For example, FiveThirtyEight | + | For example, FiveThirtyEight famously gave Trump a higher odds of winning the 2016 U.S. presidential election than most other models did just before the election, but still not more likely than his opponent. ([https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ 28.6%]). However, many readers at the time interpreted that as "Trump is definitely going to lose", and after he won that election, blasted FiveThirtyEight for getting its prediction "wrong". However, that interpretation is mistaken. 28.6% means Trump had a real chance at winning: if you could put election results in a hat and draw them at random, he would win one out of every three tries. For another example, in tabletop gaming terms, Trump's likelihood of winning was slightly lower than that of passing a flat check with a DC of 15 (6/20 or 30%). |
The correct interpretation of a probability statement like "event A has a 70% probability to happen" is that in the long run, about 70% of events with this probability end up happening. If, for example, 99% of those events ended up happening, the 70% probabilities you gave those events may likely be wrong (you should've given probabilities closer to 99%), even though you "called" almost all events correctly (in the sense that 70% means the events are more likely to happen than not to happen, and almost all of them happened). Looking back at your predictions and seeing if the results are what you should expect is called {{w|Calibration (statistics)|calibration}} ([https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/checking-our-work/ example]). | The correct interpretation of a probability statement like "event A has a 70% probability to happen" is that in the long run, about 70% of events with this probability end up happening. If, for example, 99% of those events ended up happening, the 70% probabilities you gave those events may likely be wrong (you should've given probabilities closer to 99%), even though you "called" almost all events correctly (in the sense that 70% means the events are more likely to happen than not to happen, and almost all of them happened). Looking back at your predictions and seeing if the results are what you should expect is called {{w|Calibration (statistics)|calibration}} ([https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/checking-our-work/ example]). | ||
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The title text says that these people are gullible enough to the point that they would accept a disadvantageous bet. However, it also says that the probability that they might not actually go through with paying the bet if they lose brings into question whether to propose the bet is actually worth it. Randall has previously made allusions to betting on fallaciously claimed probabilities in comics such as [[1132: Frequentists vs. Bayesians]] and [[955: Neutrinos]]. | The title text says that these people are gullible enough to the point that they would accept a disadvantageous bet. However, it also says that the probability that they might not actually go through with paying the bet if they lose brings into question whether to propose the bet is actually worth it. Randall has previously made allusions to betting on fallaciously claimed probabilities in comics such as [[1132: Frequentists vs. Bayesians]] and [[955: Neutrinos]]. | ||
| β | The comic doesn't rule out the possibility that event A and event B aren't directly related. For example, it is more likely to flip a coin and get a head than to roll a 6-sided die and get a 6. This is a fairly pointless observation in most cases, except perhaps if one is trying to explain the probability of an unfamiliar event by comparison with something very familiar. | + | The comic doesn't rule out the possibility that event A and event B aren't directly related. For example, it is more likely to flip a coin and get a head than to roll a 6-sided die and get a 6. This is a fairly pointless observation in most cases, except perhaps if one is trying to explain the probability of an unfamiliar event by comparison with something very familiar. |
At the time of writing, the 2020 United States presidential and congressional elections are less than a month away. This is a time when polls showing one or the other candidate leading are common, and may be misinterpreted to mean that the candidate is certain to win. Additionally, after the 2016 election saw Donald Trump, the trailing candidate in the polls, winning, many also interpreted this to mean that the polls were useless and/or wrong, or even go beyond this and take an adverse poll prediction as a perversely authoritative indication that the exact opposite result (which they would favour) is now a certainty. Cueball has previously shown an interest in U.S. election polling, for example in [[500: Election]]. | At the time of writing, the 2020 United States presidential and congressional elections are less than a month away. This is a time when polls showing one or the other candidate leading are common, and may be misinterpreted to mean that the candidate is certain to win. Additionally, after the 2016 election saw Donald Trump, the trailing candidate in the polls, winning, many also interpreted this to mean that the polls were useless and/or wrong, or even go beyond this and take an adverse poll prediction as a perversely authoritative indication that the exact opposite result (which they would favour) is now a certainty. Cueball has previously shown an interest in U.S. election polling, for example in [[500: Election]]. | ||
