Editing 881: Probability

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| title    = Probability
 
| title    = Probability
 
| image    = probability.png
 
| image    = probability.png
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| imagesize =
 
| titletext = My normal approach is useless here, too.
 
| titletext = My normal approach is useless here, too.
 
}}
 
}}
  
 
==Explanation==
 
==Explanation==
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As the title text says, [[55|my normal approach is useless here]].
  
[[Cueball]] and [[Megan]] are sitting on a hospital bed, reading a piece of paper with the statistics for {{w|breast cancer}} survival. It looks like Megan has just been diagnosed with breast cancer. The thick line represents the survival rate distribution (probability to be alive after X years, unconditioned): 81% are alive at 5 years, while 77% survive to 10 years. The dashed line represents the {{w|hazard function}} (the negative derivative of the thick line divided by the value of the thick line at each point, i.e. how fast the thick line falls with respect to the current value, or the risk of failing/dying at time t+Δt after having survived until time t as Δt approaches zero), which is the rate between the density of the failure distribution and the survival function. Cueball expresses how he used to find probability enjoyable because of its applicability to the real world, but now sees things differently facing a painful situation involving it.
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[[Cueball]] and [[Megan]] are sitting on a hospital bed reading a piece of paper, with the statistics for {{w|breast cancer}} survival. It looks like Megan has just been diagnosed with breast cancer.
  
[[Randall]] wrote this comic after his fiancee was diagnosed with breast cancer. Two months after posting this strip, he posted [http://blog.xkcd.com/2011/06/30/family-illness/ this blog post] explaining the [[:Category:Cancer|cancer comics]].
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The dotted line represents the survival rate distribution: the higher number being centered on about 5 years, in this case with a chance of 81%. 10 years is the limit: the max survival rate expected is 10 years, with a chance of 77%.
 
 
The title text is a reference to [[55: Useless]], where his normal approach also fails him regarding love. Cueball's (and Randall's) normal approach — math — isn't much help in dealing with ''these''  types of emotional situations.
 
 
 
A number of further comics have addressed this scenario, in particular the retrospective and occasional series of comics [[1141: Two Years]], [[1928: Seven Years]] and [[2386: Ten Years]].
 
  
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[[Randall]] posted [http://blog.xkcd.com/2011/06/30/family-illness/ this] blag post two months after posting this strip explaining the cancer strips.
  
 
==Transcript==
 
==Transcript==
:[A plot of percent vs. years, with a solid and a dashed line. The solid line starts at 100%, and drops constantly. The dashed line starts around 85%, rises to 95% after 5 years, then drops.]
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:[A plot of years vs. percent, with a solid and a dashed line. The solid line starts at 100%, and drops constantly. The dashed line starts around 85%, rises to 95% after 5 years, then drops.]
  
 
:[A simple table.]
 
:[A simple table.]
:;5 years
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:5 years 81%
::81%
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:10 years 77%
:;10 years
 
::77%
 
  
:[Cueball and Megan are sitting on a bench, next to an Intravenous drip hanging from a rack. Cueball is holding a paper.]
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:[Two people are sitting on a bench, next to an IV drip hanging from a rack. One is holding a paper.]
:Cueball: You know, probability used to be my favorite branch of math
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:Person: You know, probability used to be my favorite branch of math
:Cueball: Because it had so many real-life applications.
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:Person: Because it had so many real-life applications.
  
 
:[They embrace, faces together.]
 
:[They embrace, faces together.]
  
{{comic discussion}}
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{{comic discussion}}  
 
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
 
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
 
[[Category:Comics featuring Megan]]
 
[[Category:Comics featuring Megan]]
[[Category:Romance]]
 
 
[[Category:Cancer]]
 
[[Category:Cancer]]
[[Category:Charts]]
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[[Category:Comics with charts]]
[[Category:Line graphs]]
 
 
[[Category:Math]]
 
[[Category:Math]]
[[Category:Statistics]]
 

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