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| | ::This is a wholly inappropriate accusation to make here. If you have a problem, please put it through appropriate channels. No editor has a perfect score, we all slip up because we're all human. [[User:Lcarsos|lcarsos]]<span title="I'm an admin. I can help.">_a</span> ([[User talk:Lcarsos|talk]]) 23:49, 12 January 2013 (UTC) | | ::This is a wholly inappropriate accusation to make here. If you have a problem, please put it through appropriate channels. No editor has a perfect score, we all slip up because we're all human. [[User:Lcarsos|lcarsos]]<span title="I'm an admin. I can help.">_a</span> ([[User talk:Lcarsos|talk]]) 23:49, 12 January 2013 (UTC) |
| | : Assuming that the middle digits are random, the expected value is 1.53 million years. But: If the display is off-the-shelf, it is probably larger than the largest number actually displayed. Maybe the counter started at 1e8, and the next smaller display had only 8 digits. Maybe we should have a look at the statistical distribution of digits in commercially available LED displays ... [[Special:Contributions/77.88.71.157|77.88.71.157]] 08:42, 14 January 2013 (UTC) | | : Assuming that the middle digits are random, the expected value is 1.53 million years. But: If the display is off-the-shelf, it is probably larger than the largest number actually displayed. Maybe the counter started at 1e8, and the next smaller display had only 8 digits. Maybe we should have a look at the statistical distribution of digits in commercially available LED displays ... [[Special:Contributions/77.88.71.157|77.88.71.157]] 08:42, 14 January 2013 (UTC) |
| − | : Benford's Law does not apply to a countdown timer; the page even lists "numbers assigned sequentially" as a type of distribution that should not be expected to follow it. The comic could have taken place at any of the point in the timer's lifespan with those 9 visible numbers. Unless we attempt to compare actual predicted supervolcano eruption dates (which would be interesting, I will admit) there is no reasonable way to go about this prediction other than the stated 1 in 300,000 chance of it being all zeroes. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.216.111|108.162.216.111]] 01:12, 26 February 2015 (UTC)
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| − | ::I don't think there are displays with that many digits. You have to buy several one digit (perhaps four digits) displays and multiplex them together. 23:56, 15 February 2014 (UTC)
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| | "I forget which one" may be a reference to the 7 known supervolcanoes, or it might be to a list published by the Guardian in 2005 of the top 10 existential threats to life on Earth, which went briefly viral. It included a supervolcano eruption, as well as viral pandemic, meteorite strike, greenhouse gases, superintelligent robots, nuclear war, cosmic rays, terrorism, black holes, and telomere erosion [http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2005/apr/14/research.science2] | | "I forget which one" may be a reference to the 7 known supervolcanoes, or it might be to a list published by the Guardian in 2005 of the top 10 existential threats to life on Earth, which went briefly viral. It included a supervolcano eruption, as well as viral pandemic, meteorite strike, greenhouse gases, superintelligent robots, nuclear war, cosmic rays, terrorism, black holes, and telomere erosion [http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2005/apr/14/research.science2] |
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| | Could "the odds are in our favour" be a reference to the hunger games? {{unsigned ip|141.101.98.240}} | | Could "the odds are in our favour" be a reference to the hunger games? {{unsigned ip|141.101.98.240}} |
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| − | :If you had read all the comments, you would have seen that someone else already thought the same, and nesting your comment below his/hers would make more sense. But that's just me grammar naziing around. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.212.18|108.162.212.18]] 00:05, 16 February 2014 (UTC)
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| − | I think that it should be mentioned that there is no reliable way to accurately predict volcanic eruptions in the long-term; the best we can do is check current seismic activity to get an idea if it might happen "soon". A countdown clock would either be based on misconceptions that volcanoes follow statistical patterns and therefore based on gambler's fallacy, or would have to be based on future data or magic. That it is mentioned as an "oracle countdown" alludes to this, but I don't think it adequately explains the futility of predicting seismic activity. --[[Special:Contributions/141.101.104.17|141.101.104.17]] 23:00, 11 December 2014 (UTC)
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| − | : Just in time by the look of things'''
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| − | Supervolcanic eruptions are signalled not by seismic waves but by tropical storms -from which they seem to draw their power. The steps are missing that fully describe the energy flow. But the sequence is still good, at least for fairly low VEI numbers. The heavy stuff from the 1980's doesn't carry the other data I require: So we wait.
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| − | If you are suffering volcano induced trauma, find yourself a planet-wide tropical storm advisory page and check it once every few days. I once met a Japanese couple who were caught in the Kobe disaster. The woman was still very nervous about things but I knew I didn't know enough then to comfort her. Shortly after that or about that time, Mt Untzen erupted, killing the journalists sent there by their lords and stoopids. I asked god to help me understand these things but I was too stupid to listen in those days.
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| − | Life is for regrets to blossom in.
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| − | I believe the more you learn about something the less you fear it. Unfortunately you have to use Windows to access the Smithsonian archives so if you are reading these comics >>>thataway>>> STOP NOW! (use Listserv or follow me on sci.geo.earthquakes.)[[User:Weatherlawyer| I used Google News BEFORE it was clickbait]] ([[User talk:Weatherlawyer|talk]]) 20:42, 11 January 2015 (UTC)
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| − | There has been some speculation about the picture. Someone noticed that it also closely remembers the very early "comic" (sketch) [[4]]? --[[User:Lupo|Lupo]] ([[User talk:Lupo|talk]]) 14:49, 26 September 2019 (UTC)
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| − | For every one time the 6th digit rolls over, you will have one moment when the last eight digits are "00002409". You could assume that the number on the countdown clock started as a 14-digit number, so the 6th digit will roll over at LEAST 100,000 times, and the last 8 digits will read 00002409 at least 100,000 times. Therefore Blackhat is right to be unconcered about the very low probably of the event occuring in the next hour, which makes sense as a way to think about supervolcanos. ~~Waterengineer~~ {{unsigned|Waterengineer}}
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| − | :...just moved and sort-of-signed your comment. Bottom-posting is the standard in Talk (or indent with a(n extra) ":" straight after what you want to reply ''to''...) and using "<nowiki>~~~~</nowiki>" to auto-insert a time-and-dated signature, like I'm doing, is advisible. If you have an account (like you do) you can modify what your .sig text is quite a lot, so "~~Waterengineer~~" can form part of it if you wish. Hope that helps. Please do enjoy your future editing! [[Special:Contributions/172.70.86.68|172.70.86.68]] 22:02, 27 January 2022 (UTC)
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