Editing 2545: Bayes' Theorem
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==Explanation== | ==Explanation== | ||
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{{w|Bayes' theorem}} describes the probability of an event, given knowledge of conditions related to the event. It is typically used to update the probability that a starting condition occurred, given an outcome. This can reveal unintuitive results when the probability involved is very small. For example, when testing a large number of people for a rare disease, even a fairly accurate test will produce more false positives than the number of people actually afflicted with the disease, and hence a positive result is more likely to be false than true. | {{w|Bayes' theorem}} describes the probability of an event, given knowledge of conditions related to the event. It is typically used to update the probability that a starting condition occurred, given an outcome. This can reveal unintuitive results when the probability involved is very small. For example, when testing a large number of people for a rare disease, even a fairly accurate test will produce more false positives than the number of people actually afflicted with the disease, and hence a positive result is more likely to be false than true. | ||
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