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==Explanation==
 
{{TOC}}  
 
{{TOC}}  
==Explanation==
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This comic is a [[:Category:Timelines|timeline]] on how the temperature has changed from 20,000 BCE (Before {{w|Common Era}}) to the present day (2016), with three predictions for the rest of the 21st century depending on what actions are taken (or not taken) to stop CO₂ emission. This comic is a direct, but much more thorough, follow up on the previous global warming comic: [[1379: 4.5 Degrees]]. By having readers scroll through millennia of slow-paced natural changes, Randall uses the comic to confront the the rapid temperature rise in the recent years.  
This comic is a [[:Category:Timelines|timeline]] on how the temperature has changed from 20,000 BCE (Before {{w|Common Era}}) to the present day (2016), with three predictions for the rest of the 21st century depending on what actions are taken (or not taken) to stop CO₂ emission. This comic is a direct, but much more thorough, follow up on the previous global warming comic: [[1379: 4.5 Degrees]]. By having readers scroll through millennia of slow-paced natural changes, Randall uses the comic to confront the rapid temperature rise in recent years.  
 
  
 
Over the past 100 years, human action has produced a large amount of {{w|CO₂ emissions}}, which have caused a rise in average global temperature through the {{w|greenhouse effect}}. This is called {{w|global warming}} and is part of a {{w|climate change}}, a subject that has become a [[:Category:Climate change|recurrent subject]] on xkcd. There are still many people who claim that this is not happening, or at least that it is not caused by any human actions, called {{w|Climate change denial|climate change deniers}}. One argument of theirs is that global warming is happening for natural causes, summarized with the phrase "temperature has changed before".
 
Over the past 100 years, human action has produced a large amount of {{w|CO₂ emissions}}, which have caused a rise in average global temperature through the {{w|greenhouse effect}}. This is called {{w|global warming}} and is part of a {{w|climate change}}, a subject that has become a [[:Category:Climate change|recurrent subject]] on xkcd. There are still many people who claim that this is not happening, or at least that it is not caused by any human actions, called {{w|Climate change denial|climate change deniers}}. One argument of theirs is that global warming is happening for natural causes, summarized with the phrase "temperature has changed before".
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This comic shows that while temperature changes have indeed occurred before, the speed of the current temperature rise is much, much faster than those measured for many previous thousands of years. The comic became so popular that [[Randall]] [[#Popularity_of_comic|postponed the release]] of his next comic to keep this one on the front page one day longer.  
 
This comic shows that while temperature changes have indeed occurred before, the speed of the current temperature rise is much, much faster than those measured for many previous thousands of years. The comic became so popular that [[Randall]] [[#Popularity_of_comic|postponed the release]] of his next comic to keep this one on the front page one day longer.  
  
The temperature curve is a dotted line most of the time, but from about 1850 to 2016 the measurement data is good enough to let the curve become a solid line indicating that this is not an estimate. Before 1850 the temperature is an estimate based on the [[#Sources|sources]] given. And likewise into the future the three possible curves are also dotted to show that they are predictions, based on how seriously the population of Earth takes knowledge (and comics) like this.
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The temperature curve is a dotted line most of the time, but from about 1850 to 2016 the measurement data is good enough to let the curve become a solid line indicating that this is not an estimate. Before 1850 the temperature is an estimate based on the [[#Sources|sources]] given. And likewise into the future the three possible curves are also dotted to show that they are predictions, based on how seriously the population of Earth takes knowledge (and comics) like this.  
  
Although this is a topic Randall obviously takes very seriously, and by far most of the facts fit with known history, he still includes several [[#Jokes in the comic|jokes in the comic]]. See also the [[#Table of all elements|table]] explaining each item in the comic.
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Although this is a topic Randall obviously takes very seriously, and by far most of the facts fit with known history, he still includes several [[#Jokes in the comic|jokes in the comic]]. See also the [[#Table of all elements|table]] explaining each item in the comic. So after the election of a climate change denier later in the year of this comic's release, [[1756:_I'm_With_Her#Sad_comics|several sad comics]] has been posted. Some of the reason could be that Randall no longer believes that even his worst fears (as expressed by the current path at the bottom) will hold up, when USA gets a president, who will on purpose act in a way that scientist claims will make the temperature rise even more. [[1756:_I'm_With_Her#Sad_comics|See more here]].
  
The title text compares the saying that "the temperature has changed before" comparing temperature changes over thousands of years to the rapid global warming over the last century with saying that the "small" changes to the temperature a car experiences over the years of normal usage should not make you worried over the rapid temperature increase that happens when someone sets your car on fire. Randall previously used this joke in [[1693: Oxidation]] and [[1014: Car Problems]].
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The title text compares the saying that "the temperature has changed before" comparing temperature changes over thousands of years to the rapid global warming over the last century with saying that the "small" changes to the temperature a car experiences over the years of normal usage should not make you worried over the rapid temperature increase that happens when someone sets your car on fire. A related joke was used recently in [[1693: Oxidation]].
  
 
===Jokes in the comic===
 
===Jokes in the comic===
 
* By placing the invention of the internet at 1980 in the chart, just where the temperature curve starts its most rapid increase, Randall humorously implies that the internet caused the rise in temperature.
 
* By placing the invention of the internet at 1980 in the chart, just where the temperature curve starts its most rapid increase, Randall humorously implies that the internet caused the rise in temperature.
* At 13600 BCE a glacier is shown retreating from New York because of the warm up. It is disgusted by the new changes and proclaims: ''That’s it! I’m moving to Canada!'' This is a joke on [https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/want-to-move-to-canada-if-trump-wins-not-so-fast-100658/ an idiom said by US citizens] to protest against changes in their country. As shown in the chart, the glacier takes 5000 years (13600-8400 BCE) to cross what would become the Canadian border (neither the United States nor Canada existed yet).{{citation needed}} Also, glaciers don't speak English, or any language for that matter.{{Citation needed}}
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* At 13600 BCE a glacier is shown retreating from New York because of the warm up. It is disgusted by the new changes and proclaims: ''That’s it! I’m moving to Canada!'' A joke on the typical saying by US citizens that are unhappy with changes in their country, as a kind of protest. According to the chart the glacier first retreated over the Canadian border around 8400 BCE more than 5000 years later.
* At 13400 BCE it is mentioned that {{w|origin of the domestic dog|humans domesticate dogs}}. [[Megan]] talks to a wolf about to be tamed making a deal with it, that it can eat and sleep with the humans as long as they can yell at it for pooping indoors. This sounds like a sweet deal for the wolf until [[Cueball]] mentions that they will {{w|Dog breeding|breed}} it to be {{w|Chihuahua (dog)|very small}} and then dress it up in small {{w|Dog's fashion|costumes}}. The wolf says wait, but it is already too late...
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* At 13400 BCE it is mentioned that {{w|origin of the domestic dog|humans domesticate dogs}}. [[Megan]] talks to a wolf about to be tamed making a deal with it, that it can eat and sleep with the humans as long as they can yell at it for pooping indoor. This sounds like a sweet deal for the wolf until [[Cueball]] mentions that they will {{w|Dog breeding|breed}} it to be {{w|Chihuahua (dog)|very small}} and then dress it up in small {{w|Dog's fashion|costumes}}. The wolf says wait, but it is already too late...
* The {{w|Pokémon}} reference at 9000 BCE about them going extinct in North America (although Megan, immediately underneath, does note that this is not a real fact). As the writing stated that ''Pokemon go extinct'' this can also be seen as a reference to a popular video game called {{w|Pokémon Go}} and hence also the comic [[1705|1705: Pokémon Go]].
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* The {{w|Pokémon}} reference at 9000 BCE about them going extinct in North America (although Megan does proclaim that this is not a real fact). As the writing stated that ''Pokémon go extinct'' this can also be seen as a reference to the recently released {{w|Pokémon Go}} game and hence also the recent comic [[1705: Pokémon Go]].
* At 4500 BCE, next to "{{w|Proto-Indo-European language}} develops", [[Ponytail]] gets the idea to develop the language heavily inflected to make it difficult to remember all the verb endings for future students. This is a direct reference to the comic [[1709: Inflection]].
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* At 4500 BCE, next to "{{w|Proto-Indo-European language}} develops", [[Ponytail]] gets the idea to develop the language heavily inflected to make it difficult to remember all the verb endings for future students. A direct reference to the recent comic [[1709: Inflection]].
 
* The reference to the 1984 {{w|mockumentary}} about the fake rock band {{w|This Is Spinal Tap}} in conjunction with {{w|Stonehenge}} at 2200 BCE. In the movie the band ordered a giant 18 feet Stonehenge megalith but a writing mistake gives them one that is only 18 inches high.
 
* The reference to the 1984 {{w|mockumentary}} about the fake rock band {{w|This Is Spinal Tap}} in conjunction with {{w|Stonehenge}} at 2200 BCE. In the movie the band ordered a giant 18 feet Stonehenge megalith but a writing mistake gives them one that is only 18 inches high.
**Another real band {{w|Nine Inch Nails}} is referenced 15000 BCE where Megan writes the band's stylized name NIИ on the wall next to [[Hairy]] who is in the process of painting the {{w|cave painting}} at {{w|Lascaux}} in France.
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**Another real band {{w|Nine Inch Nails}} is referenced 16000 BCE where Megan writes the bands stylized name NIИ on the wall next to [[Hairy]] who is in the process of painting the {{w|cave painting}} at {{w|Lascaux}} in France.
 
* Around the setting of the {{w|Iliad}} and the {{w|Odyssey}} (1200 BCE) a drawing of the {{w|Trojan Horse}} has writing on it that states: ''Not a trap''.  
 
* Around the setting of the {{w|Iliad}} and the {{w|Odyssey}} (1200 BCE) a drawing of the {{w|Trojan Horse}} has writing on it that states: ''Not a trap''.  
* Just below the previous entry also at 1200 BCE is the mentioning of the invasion of the {{w|Sea Peoples}}. This sounds so much like a reference to {{w|Mermaid|mermaids}}, often called {{w|Mermaid#One_Thousand_and_One_Nights|sea people}} that Randall feels the need to note that this invasion and these sea people is ''a real thing'' in a [[Footnote|footnote]]. This is opposed to the Pokémon reference above where he notes that it is ''not a real fact''. The sea people was a seafaring confederation of groups known to have attacked ancient Egypt and other Bronze age civilizations around this time. It is widely regarded to be one of the major causes of the {{w|Late Bronze Age collapse|Bronze Age Collapse}}.
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* Just below the previous entry also at 1200 BCE is the mentioning of the invasion of the {{w|Sea Peoples}}. This sounds so much like a reference to {{w|Mermaid|mermaids}}, often called {{w|Mermaid#One_Thousand_and_One_Nights|sea people}} that Randall feels the need to note that this invasion and these sea people is ''a real thing'' in a footnote. This is opposed to the Pokémon reference above where he notes that it is ''not a real fact''. The sea people was a seafaring confederation of groups known to have attacked ancient Egypt around this time.
* The reference at 450 BCE compares the {{w|Battle of Thermopylae}} (also known as 300 Spartans) with the dramatized 2007 movie ''{{w|300 (film)|300}}'', but in the real world the fighting of course occurred [https://youtu.be/FCfdyroV7kc?t=12 at regular speed and with more clothing].
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* At 450 BCE a reference to the {{w|Battle of Thermopylae}} (also known as 300 Spartans) he references this by comparing the event with the 2007 movie ''{{w|300 (film)|300}}'' about this battle. But notes that in the real world the fighting of course occurred at regular speed and that they probably had more clothing on in the real world than in the fictionalized action movie.
 
*There are other minor jokes but this list mentions all the major jokes.
 
*There are other minor jokes but this list mentions all the major jokes.
  
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***In a few cases where a maximum is reached 0.05°C has been used
 
***In a few cases where a maximum is reached 0.05°C has been used
 
**Explanation of each element.
 
**Explanation of each element.
{| class="wikitable sortable"
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{| class="wikitable"
 
!Year group
 
!Year group
 
!Element
 
!Element
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|-
 
|-
 
| rowspan="2"| 20000 <small>BCE</small>
 
| rowspan="2"| 20000 <small>BCE</small>
| [An arrow goes from the dotted line to the central line at 0°C (representing the 1961-1990 average). In the middle of the line there is a temperature label:] 4.3°C<br>At the start of our timeline, 22,000 years ago, Earth is 4°C colder than during the late 20<sup>th</sup> century. || 20000 BCE || -4.3 || The scale here is relative, showing the magnitude of change rather than an absolute temperature reading. As a rule, {{w|climate}} changes are compared with a 30 year interval, and the 1961-1990 average was {{w|Climate#Definition|chosen for convenience}} as the "normal" to compare temperature changes with, but any other choice of baseline would show the exact same changes. The {{w|Last glacial period}} (aka ice age) reached its {{w|Last Glacial Maximum|maximum extent}} approximately 22 to 24 thousand years ago.
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| [An arrow goes from the dotted line to the central line at 0°C (representing the 1961-1990 average). In the middle of the line there is a temperature label:] 4.3°C<br>At the start of our timeline, 22,000 years ago, Earth is 4°C colder than during the late 20<sup>th</sup> century. || 20000 BCE || -4.3 || The scale here is relative, showing the magnitude of change rather than an absolute temperature reading. As a rule, {{w|climate}} changes are compared with a 30 year interval, and {{w|Climate#Definition|recently}} the 1961-1990 average was chosen for convenience as the "normal" to compare temperature changes with, but any other choice of baseline would show the exact same changes. The {{w|Last glacial period}} (aka ice age) reached its {{w|Last Glacial Maximum|maximum extent}} approximately 22 to 24 thousand years ago.
 
|-
 
|-
  
| {{w|Boston}} is buried under almost a mile of ice, and the {{w|glaciers}} reach as far south as {{w|New York City}}.<br> [The Statue of Liberty is shown in front of a glacier front. [[Knit Cap]] is seen in the snowy landscape. The skyline of Boston is shown under a half a mile of ice.] || 19700 BCE || -4.3 || This shows what a difference 4 degree in global temperature means (massive effect), as opposed to four degrees on a daily weather wise scale (trivial). The Boston image is directly taken from [[1225: Ice Sheets]] about the ice age glacier coverage; it was also shown buried in ice in [[1379: 4.5 Degrees]].
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| {{w|Boston}} is buried under almost a mile of ice, and the {{w|glaciers}} reach as far south as {{w|New York City}}.<br> [The Statue of Liberty is shown in front of a glacier front. A guy with a white {{w|knit cap}} is seen walking in a snowy landscape. The skyline of Boston is shown under a half a mile of ice.] || 19700 BCE || -4.3 || This shows what a difference 4 degree in global temperature means (massive effect), as opposed to four degrees on a daily weather wise scale (trivial). The Boston image is directly taken from [[1225: Ice Sheets]] about the ice age glacier coverage; it was also shown buried in ice in [[1379: 4.5 Degrees]]. The guy with the white knit cap could be the guy from [[1321: Cold]] also about global warming. Knit caps have only been used a few times in xkcd, most prominently on [[1350:_Lorenz#Knit_Cap_Girl|Knit Cap Girl]] in [[1350: Lorenz]].
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|-
 
|-
 
| rowspan="3"| 19500 <small>BCE</small>
 
| rowspan="3"| 19500 <small>BCE</small>
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|-
 
|-
| {{w|Horses}} disappear from {{w|North America}} || 9100 BCE || -0.2 || The {{w|evolution of the horse}} began millions of years ago in North America; early species {{w|Evolution_of_the_horse#Miocene_and_Pliocene:_true_equines|migrated across Beringia into Eurasia}} before their predecessors {{w|Evolution_of_the_horse#Pleistocene_extinctions|died out}}.
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| {{w|Horses}} disappear from {{w|North America}} || 9100 BCE || -0.2 || The {{w|evolution of the horse}} began millions of years ago in North America; early species {{w|https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evolution_of_the_horse#Miocene_and_Pliocene:_true_equines|migrated across Beringia into Eurasia}} before their predecessors {{w|https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evolution_of_the_horse#Pleistocene_extinctions|died out}}.
  
 
|-
 
|-
 
| rowspan="4"| 9000 <small>BCE</small>
 
| rowspan="4"| 9000 <small>BCE</small>
| | Last North American {{w|Pokémon}} go extinct <br> [Cueball with a spear and Megan is looking up at this last “fact”.] <br> Megan: That is not a real fact. || 8900 BCE || -0.1 || Pokemon are not real {{Citation needed}}. This faux-extinction is likely a reference to the {{w|Pokémon Go}} game, which Randall spoofed in [[1705|1705: Pokémon Go]]. Virtual Pokémon now thrive throughout the entire world, and are most commonly found near [http://time.com/4443225/pokemon-go-affluent-white-neighborhoods-report/ affluent first world neighborhoods].
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| | Last North American {{w|Pokémon}} go extinct <br> [Cueball with a spear and Megan is looking up at this last “fact”.] <br> Megan: That is not a real fact. || 8900 BCE || -0.1 || Pokemon are not real. This faux-extinction is likely a reference to the recent {{w|Pokémon Go}} game, which Randall spoofed in [[1705: Pokémon Go]]. Virtual Pokémon now thrive throughout the entire world, and are most commonly found near [http://time.com/4443225/pokemon-go-affluent-white-neighborhoods-report/ affluent first world neighborhoods].
  
 
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|-
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| {{w|Proto-Indo-European language}} develops || 4400 BCE || 0.5 || Most of the languages in Europe, the Middle East, and India share a surprising number of common roots. PIE is the theoretical ancestor from which they descend. Randall mentions this language family in many comics, such as [[890: Etymology]].
 
| {{w|Proto-Indo-European language}} develops || 4400 BCE || 0.5 || Most of the languages in Europe, the Middle East, and India share a surprising number of common roots. PIE is the theoretical ancestor from which they descend. Randall mentions this language family in many comics, such as [[890: Etymology]].
 
|-
 
|-
| [To the right of the curve Ponytail holds up a hand towards Cueball.]<br> Ponytail: Let’s make our language heavily inflected, so future students have to memorize a zillion verb endings!<br> Cueball: Okay! || 4400 BCE || 0.5 || Ponytail gets the idea to develop the language heavily inflected to make it difficult to remember all the verb endings for future students and Cueball is okay with that. This is a direct reference to the comic [[1709: Inflection]].
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| [To the right of the curve Ponytail holds up a hand towards Cueball.]<br> Ponytail: Let’s make out language heavily inflected, so future students have to memorize a zillion verb endings!<br> Cueball: Okay! || 4400 BCE || 0.5 || Ponytail gets the idea to develop the language heavily inflected to make it difficult to remember all the verb endings for future students and Cueball is okay with that. This is a direct reference to the recent comic [[1709: Inflection]].
 
|-
 
|-
 
| Permanent settlements in the {{w|fertile crescent}} || 4200 BCE || 0.5 || The Fertile Crescent is one of those things you're supposed to remember from grade school. A lot of historic milestones happened there, such as the pyramids of Giza, the code of Hammurabi, and the Abrahamic religions.
 
| Permanent settlements in the {{w|fertile crescent}} || 4200 BCE || 0.5 || The Fertile Crescent is one of those things you're supposed to remember from grade school. A lot of historic milestones happened there, such as the pyramids of Giza, the code of Hammurabi, and the Abrahamic religions.
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|-
 
|-
 
| rowspan="8"| 1000 <small>BCE</small>
 
| rowspan="8"| 1000 <small>BCE</small>
| [From 1000 BBC to 1000 CE the temperature is stable and very close to the 1961-1990 average.] || 1000 BCE || 0.1 || The temperature has fallen from the Holocene Optimum by half a degree to just a bit above the 1961-1990 average. It will stay in this range for the next 2000 years.
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| [From 1000 BBC to 1000 CE the temperature is stable and very close to the 1961-1990 average.] || 1000 BCE || 0.1 || The temperature has fallen from the Holocene Optimum by half a degree to just a bit above the the 1961-1990 average. It will stay in this range for the next 2000 years.
 
|-
 
|-
 
| {{w|Solomon}} || 1000 BCE || 0.1 || Solomon may have been a real historical king, but he probably did not threaten to chop a baby in half.
 
| {{w|Solomon}} || 1000 BCE || 0.1 || Solomon may have been a real historical king, but he probably did not threaten to chop a baby in half.
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| [To the left a drawing of a compass with needle pointing the black end towards north east. There are labels for the four main directions (N, S, W, E) and a label next to it:]<br> {{w|Magnetic compass}} navigation || 1050 CE || 0.0 || It's much easier to sail to the Orient when you can orient yourself.
 
| [To the left a drawing of a compass with needle pointing the black end towards north east. There are labels for the four main directions (N, S, W, E) and a label next to it:]<br> {{w|Magnetic compass}} navigation || 1050 CE || 0.0 || It's much easier to sail to the Orient when you can orient yourself.
 
|-
 
|-
| [The dotted curve moves to the left towards lower temperature reaching a minimum around 1650 CE of about 0.6°C below the 1961-1990 average at the {{w|Little Ice Age}}.] || 1150 CE || -0.1 || This less than half a degree drop in temperature over 500 years was enough to cause the "Little Ice Age" which resulted in extended ice coverage in the winters in instance Europe. See more below at the entry for the Little Ice Age.
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| [The dotted curve moves to the left towards lower temperature reaching a minimum around 1650 CE of about 0.6°C below the 1961-1990 average at the {{w|Little Ice Age}}.] || 1150 CE || -0.1 || This less than half a degree drop in temperature over 500 years was ennough to cause the "Little Ice Age" which resulted in extended ice coverage in the winters in instance Europe. See more below at the entry for the Little Ice Age.
 
|-
 
|-
| {{w|Genghis Khan}} || 1200 CE || -0.2 || Mongol emperor. {{w|Gengar}} is not named after him, but [http://bulbapedia.bulbagarden.net/wiki/Kangaskhan_(Pokémon) Kangaskhan] and [http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Khal the Khals] are.
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| {{w|Ghengis Khan}} || 1200 CE || -0.2 || Mongol emperor. {{w|Gengar}} is not named after him, but [http://bulbapedia.bulbagarden.net/wiki/Kangaskhan_(Pokémon) Kangaskhan] and [http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Khal the Khals] are.
 
|-
 
|-
 
| {{w|Zheng He}}’s fleet explores Asia and Africa || 1400 CE || -0.3 || He explored farther than European contemporaries like Dias or de Gama.
 
| {{w|Zheng He}}’s fleet explores Asia and Africa || 1400 CE || -0.3 || He explored farther than European contemporaries like Dias or de Gama.
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| {{w|Printing press}} || 1450 CE || -0.3 || {{w|Johannes Gutenburg}} ushered in the {{w|Age of Enlightenment}}.
 
| {{w|Printing press}} || 1450 CE || -0.3 || {{w|Johannes Gutenburg}} ushered in the {{w|Age of Enlightenment}}.
 
|-
 
|-
| {{w|Christopher Columbus|Columbus}} || 1490 CE || -0.3 || The time given here references when Christopher Columbus reached the {{w|Americas|New World}} in 1492. The five events around 1500 CE lies very close together but it fits with Columbus fitted in just before 1500.
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| {{w|Christopher Columbus|Columbus}} || 1490 CE || -0.3 || The time given here references when Christopher Columbus reached the {{w|Americas|new world}} in 1492. The five events around 1500 CE lies very close together but it fits with Columbus fitted in just before 1500.
  
 
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|-
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| rowspan="3"| 1800
 
| rowspan="3"| 1800
 
| {{w|Industrial Revolution}} || 1825 CE || -0.3 || Not to be confused with {{w|Industrial music}} such as Nine Inch Nails.
 
| {{w|Industrial Revolution}} || 1825 CE || -0.3 || Not to be confused with {{w|Industrial music}} such as Nine Inch Nails.
|-  
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|-
| {{w|Electrical telegraph|Telegraphs}} || 1830 CE || -0.3 || [https://youtu.be/4OLWJ1TMuNE?t=55s -. --- .-- --..-- / - .... . / -- --- - .... . .-. / --- ..-. / ... .- -- ..- . .-.. / -- --- .-. ... . / .- .-.. .-- .- -.-- ... / ... . -. - / - .... . / .-.. .- -.. / --- ..- - / --- -. / .- / .... --- .-. ... .]
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| {{w|Electrical telegraph|Telegraphs}} || 1830 CE || -0.3 || [https://youtu.be/gEGQUgWBQL4?t=56s -. --- .-- --..-- / - .... . / -- --- - .... . .-. / --- ..-. / ... .- -- ..- . .-.. / -- --- .-. ... . / .- .-.. .-- .- -.-- ... / ... . -. - / - .... . / .-.. .- -.. / --- ..- - / --- -. / .- / .... --- .-. ... .]
 
|-
 
|-
 
| [After this the dotted curve becomes solid.] || 1850 CE || -0.3 || From 1850 weather records became sufficiently accurate and widespread to greatly improve the precision of climate measurements. Hence the curve stops being an estimate and thus also stops being a dotted curve and becomes solid.
 
| [After this the dotted curve becomes solid.] || 1850 CE || -0.3 || From 1850 weather records became sufficiently accurate and widespread to greatly improve the precision of climate measurements. Hence the curve stops being an estimate and thus also stops being a dotted curve and becomes solid.
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| [From here the curve once again becomes dotted as this is the future. After one dot it splits in two and after the first two dots another split between them occurs forming three possible future dotted curves.] || 2016 CE || 0.8 || Here stops the data and the projection into the future begins so the curve again becomes dotted. Three different scenarios are depicted.
 
| [From here the curve once again becomes dotted as this is the future. After one dot it splits in two and after the first two dots another split between them occurs forming three possible future dotted curves.] || 2016 CE || 0.8 || Here stops the data and the projection into the future begins so the curve again becomes dotted. Three different scenarios are depicted.
 
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|-
|The first curve bending down before the others, and thus to the right of the other two reaches about 1.2°C above the 1961-1990 average and then goes straight down and stops at the 2100 line. An arrow points to it from the left and a label is written partly before and the rest after the 2100 line to the left of the curve:] <br>Best-case scenario assuming immediate massive action to limit emissions || 2100 CE || 1.2 || If humanity does all in its power to stop global warming we might be able to halt the global warming already before 2050 keeping the maximum temperature to just 1.2°C above the 1961-1990 average. Only 0.4°C above today's temperature. (Note that this is not, in fact, the absolute best-case scenario, as it assumes that no new greenhouse gasses are either added to or removed from the atmosphere in the future; the temperature rise could be kept to an even lower level if some or all of the already-emitted greenhouse gasses were removed from the atmosphere.)
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|The first curve bending down before the others, and thus to the right of the other two reaches about 1.2°C above the 1961-1990 average and then goes straight down and stops at the 2100 line. An arrow points to it from the left and a label is written partly before and the rest after the 2100 line to the left of the curve:] <br>Best-case scenario assuming immediate massive action to limit emissions || 2100 CE || 1.2 || If humanity does all in its power to stop global warming we might be able to halt the global warming already before 2050 keeping the maximum temperature to just 1.2°C above the 1961-1990 average. Only 0.4°C above today's temperature.  
  
 
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===Sources===
 
===Sources===
 
The image attributes climate data sources as "Shakun et al. (2012), Marcott et al. (2013), Annan and Hargreaves (2013), HadCRUT4, IPCC":
 
The image attributes climate data sources as "Shakun et al. (2012), Marcott et al. (2013), Annan and Hargreaves (2013), HadCRUT4, IPCC":
* Shakun, Jeremy D.; Clark, Peter U.; He, Feng; Marcott, Shaun A.; Mix, Alan C.; Liu, Zhengyu; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Schmittner, Andreas; Bard, Edouard (2012-04-04). [https://web.archive.org/web/20160520043848/http://www.atm.damtp.cam.ac.uk/mcintyre/shakun-co2-temp-lag-nat12.pdf "Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation"] (PDF). ''Nature''. '''484''' (7392): 49–54. doi:[https://doi.org/10.1038%2Fnature10915 10.1038/nature10915]. ISSN [https://www.worldcat.org/issn/1476-4687 1476-4687]. Archived from [https://www.nature.com/articles/nature10915 the original] on 2016-05-20.
+
* Shakun et al. (2012) - [http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v484/n7392/full/nature10915.html Nature], [http://www.atm.damtp.cam.ac.uk/mcintyre/shakun-co2-temp-lag-nat12.pdf (pdf)]
* Marcott, Shaun A.; Shakun, Jeremy D.; Clark, Peter U.; Mix, Alan C. (2013-03-08). [https://web.archive.org/web/20130412021608/https://content.csbs.utah.edu/~mli/Economics%207004/Marcott_Global%20Temperature%20Reconstructed.pdf "A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years"] (PDF). ''Science''. doi:[https://doi.org/10.1126%2Fscience.1228026 10.1126/science.1228026]. Archived from [https://www.science.org/doi/abs/10.1126/science.1228026 the original] on 2013-04-12.
+
* Marcott et al. (2013) - [http://science.sciencemag.org/content/339/6124/1198 Science], [http://content.csbs.utah.edu/~mli/Economics%207004/Marcott_Global%20Temperature%20Reconstructed.pdf (pdf)]
* Annan, J. D.; Hargreaves, J. C. (2013-02-13). [https://web.archive.org/web/20200728042751/https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/9/367/2013/cp-9-367-2013.pdf "A new global reconstruction of temperature changes at the Last Glacial Maximum"] (PDF). ''Climate of the Past''. '''9''' (1): 367–376. doi:[https://doi.org/10.5194%2Fcp-9-367-2013 10.5194/cp-9-367-2013]. ISSN [https://www.worldcat.org/issn/1814-9324 1814-9324]. Archived from [https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/9/367/2013/ the original] on 2020-07-28.
+
* Annan and Hargreaves (2013) - [http://www.clim-past.net/9/367/2013/cp-9-367-2013.html Climate of the Past] [http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frsgc/research/d5/jdannan/LGM_temp.pdf (pdf)]
* {{w|HadCRUT|HadCRUT (Hadley Centre/Climatic Research Unit Temperature)}} - [http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut4/ Official site]  
+
* {{w|HadCRUT#HadCRUT4 wikipedia|HadCRUT4}} - [http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut4/ Official site]  
* {{w|Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change}} - [http://www.ipcc.ch/ Official site]
+
* {{w|Intergovernmental_Panel_on_Climate_Change|IPCC}} -[http://www.ipcc.ch/ Official site]
  
 
==Transcript==
 
==Transcript==
Line 461: Line 462:
 
:::New York
 
:::New York
 
:::Ice
 
:::Ice
:::[Cueball (wearing a knit cap with a pom-pom is seen walking in a snowy landscape leaving black footprints behind him. He walks through the white central part of the chart.]
+
:::[A guy with a white knit cap is seen walking in a snowy landscape leaving black footprints behind him. He walks through the white central part of the chart.]
 
:::[The skyline of Boston is shown with two clear buildings among all the other. Above it is a line and in between this area has been filled with thin lines. The drawing is labeled and so is this area. Also the skyline has an arrow pointing at it with a label:]
 
:::[The skyline of Boston is shown with two clear buildings among all the other. Above it is a line and in between this area has been filled with thin lines. The drawing is labeled and so is this area. Also the skyline has an arrow pointing at it with a label:]
 
:::Boston
 
:::Boston
Line 617: Line 618:
 
:: Proto-Indo-European language develops
 
:: Proto-Indo-European language develops
 
:::[To the right of the curve Ponytail holds up a hand towards Cueball.]
 
:::[To the right of the curve Ponytail holds up a hand towards Cueball.]
:::Ponytail: Let’s make our language heavily inflected, so future students have to memorize a zillion verb endings!
+
:::Ponytail: Let’s make out language heavily inflected, so future students have to memorize a zillion verb endings!
 
:::Cueball: Okay!
 
:::Cueball: Okay!
 
::[To the left:]
 
::[To the left:]
Line 673: Line 674:
 
::[To the left:]
 
::[To the left:]
 
::Solomon
 
::Solomon
::Illiad [sic] and Odyssey composed  
+
::[Randall spelled Iliad wrongly this time:]
 +
::Illiad and Odyssey composed  
 
::[To the left:]
 
::[To the left:]
 
::Rise of Greek city-states
 
::Rise of Greek city-states
Line 714: Line 716:
 
::[To the left:]
 
::[To the left:]
 
::Various groups take turns sacking Rome
 
::Various groups take turns sacking Rome
::Attila the Hun
+
::[Randall spelled Attila wrong:]
 +
::Atilla the Hun
  
 
:500 <small>CE</small>
 
:500 <small>CE</small>
Line 733: Line 736:
 
:::Magnetic compass navigation
 
:::Magnetic compass navigation
 
::[To the left:]
 
::[To the left:]
::Ghengis [sic] Khan  
+
::Ghengis Khan  
 
::Zheng He’s fleet explores Asia and Africa
 
::Zheng He’s fleet explores Asia and Africa
 
::[To the left:]
 
::[To the left:]
Line 793: Line 796:
  
 
==Trivia==
 
==Trivia==
*There have been several ''[[:Category:Large drawings|large drawings]]'' in the history of xkcd, some of which are bigger than this one (for instance [[1110: Click and Drag]]).  
+
*There have been several ''[[:Category:Large drawings|large drawings]]'' in the history of xkcd, and also some that are bigger than this one (for instance [[1110: Click and Drag]]).  
**Among those that can be viewed in one go, without downloading a larger file or moving around, this is by far the longest.
+
**But among those that can be viewed in one go, without downloading a larger file or moving around, this is by far the longest.
*The timeline starts at 20,000 BCE (22,000 years ago) and ends at 2100 CE, thus covering 22,100 years.
+
**The next longest is probably [[482: Height]].
 +
*The timeline starts at 20,000 BCE (22,000 years ago) and ends at 2100 CE, thus covering 22,100 years.  
 
*There are several spelling mistakes.  
 
*There are several spelling mistakes.  
**Most obvious is the second time Randall wrote the word "Iliad," because he just spelled it correctly at 1500 BCE and then spelled it ''Illiad'' at 1000 BCE with two Ls.
+
**Most obvious is the second time Randall wrote the word "Iliad," because he just spelled it correctly at 1500 BCE and then spelled it ''Illiad'' at 1000 BCE with two "L"s.
**Attila the Hun was initially misspelt ''Atilla the Hun'' with ''one'' T and ''two'' Ls, but this was corrected at some point.
+
**Attila the Hun becomes ''Atilla the Hun'' with ''one'' T and ''two'' L's.
**Genghis Khan is misspelt as ''Ghengis Khan'' (a common error).
+
**Pokémon is spelled ''Pokemon'', but then again that is not so strange for Randall (see [[1647: Diacritics]]). But he usually spells it correctly as in the recent comic [[1705: Pokémon Go]].
**Pokémon is spelled ''Pokemon'', but then again, that is not so strange for Randall (see [[1647: Diacritics]]). Despite that, he usually spells it correctly, as in [[1705|1705: Pokémon Go]].
+
**Note that the fact that Woolly rhinoceros becomes ''Wooly rhino'' with only one l is not a spelling mistake but an alternative spelling of the word.
**Note that the fact that woolly rhinoceros becomes ''Wooly rhino'' with only one l is not a spelling mistake but an alternative spelling of the word.
+
*Notably absent are the following facts
*The following notable facts are absent
+
**1850: methodical temperature record begins. Although this fact is indirectly indicated when the temperature curve becomes solid around 1850 and until present day.
**1850: methodical temperature record begins. However, this fact is indirectly indicated when the temperature curve becomes solid around 1850 and until present day.
+
**The entire swing period between 20 and 200 thousand years prior to now, which would depict temperature swings with increasing frequency and amplitude (ref geological record). But of course this could not be included in a comic that only goes back to 20,000 BCE. And as is clear from the curve the temperature has been very stable these last 10,000 years which may explain why human civilization has peace from rapid changes in the environment to develop in the first place. And now it seems that we are causing this stable plateau to come to an end, and that was the point of the comic.
**The entire swing period between 20 and 200 thousand years prior to now would depict temperature swings with increasing frequency and amplitude (ref geological record). But of course, this could not be included in a comic that only goes back to 20,000 BCE.  
+
**The 300 million years prior to that, during much of which the Earth was significantly warmer than now. However, the data's temporal precision decreases with age; seemingly abrupt changes millions of years ago might have happened over centuries or millennia. Hence, the older data is not usable to compare rates of change.
**During much of the 300 million years prior to that, the Earth was significantly warmer than now. However, the data's temporal precision decreases with age; seemingly abrupt changes millions of years ago might have happened over centuries or millennia. Hence, the older data is not usable to compare rates of change.
 
  
 
===Popularity of comic===
 
===Popularity of comic===
This comic received attention from a much broader audience than most xkcd comics. It was discussed admiringly by news sites such as [https://www.popsci.com/xkcd-earth-average-temperature-timeline Popular Science], [https://reason.com/blog/2016/09/14/send-around-this-xkcd-climate-change-web Reason], [https://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2016/09/13/xkcd_takes_on_global_warming.html Slate], [https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/new-comic-masterfully-shows-how-climate-has-changed-through-time-180960451/ Smithsonian], [https://www.forbes.com/sites/ericmack/2016/09/13/heres-22000-years-of-climate-changes-in-a-single-comic/ Forbes], [https://www.vox.com/2016/9/12/12891814/climate-change-xkcd-graphic Vox], [https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2016/09/14/493925781/epic-climate-cartoon-goes-viral-but-it-has-one-key-problem NPR], [https://qz.com/780391/xkcd-tells-the-entire-history-of-humanity-and-climate-change-in-one-cartoon-chart/ Quartz], [https://www.sciencealert.com/why-4-5-million-years-of-fluctuating-global-temperatures-can-t-explain-climate-change-today Science Alert] and [https://www.climatecentral.org/news/climate-change-xkcd-comic-20696 Climate Central]. It was promoted by famous individuals such as [https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/775632728548970500 Elon Musk] and even [https://twitter.com/unfccc/status/776129715799224320 twitted by the UN council on Climate Change], and obviously hated on by vocal {{rw|climate_change|climate change deniers}} and {{rw|crank|cranks}} such as [https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/53poul/josh_takes_on_xkcds_climate_timeline/ Anthony Watts]<sup><small>{{rw|Anthony_Watts|debunked}}</small></sup> and [https://joannenova.com.au/2016/09/how-to-make-climate-graphs-look-scary-a-reply-to-xkcd/ Joanne Nova]<sup><small>{{rw|Joanne_Nova|debunked}}</small></sup>
+
*This comic became popular with a much broader audience than most xkcd comics. It was discussed admiringly by news sites such as [http://www.popsci.com/xkcd-earth-average-temperature-timeline Popular Science], [http://reason.com/blog/2016/09/14/send-around-this-xkcd-climate-change-web Reason], [http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2016/09/13/xkcd_takes_on_global_warming.html Slate], [http://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/new-comic-masterfully-shows-how-climate-has-changed-through-time-180960451/ Smithsonian], and [http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericmack/2016/09/13/heres-22000-years-of-climate-changes-in-a-single-comic/ Forbes]. It was promoted by famous individuals such as [[Elon Musk]] and [http://www.ecowatch.com/xkcd-climate-change-2003991855.html John Green], and of course criticized by climate skeptics such as [http://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/09/20/josh-takes-on-xkcds-climate-timeline/ Anthony Watts] and [http://joannenova.com.au/2016/09/how-to-make-climate-graphs-look-scary-a-reply-to-xkcd/ Joanne Nova].
 
+
*Due to increased interest, Randall decided to push the release of the next comic [[1733: Solar Spectrum]] one day back for a rare [[:Category:Thursday comics|Thursday release]] instead of the scheduled [[:Category:Wednesday comics|Wednesday release]].
For more {{rw|rationalist}} critiques of this chart not driven by the agenda of pushing {{rw|pseudoscientific}} beliefs which are against the worldwide consensus, see the following articles:
+
**He [http://web.archive.org/web/20160915101125/http://xkcd.com/ noted this] above [http://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/images/a/a6/1732_Earth_Temperature_Timeline_header_text_changed_for_all_comics.png all the comics] in the [http://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/images/6/6d/1732_Earth_Temperature_Timeline_header_text_changed.png header text on xkcd]:
* [https://www.climatecentral.org/news/climate-change-xkcd-comic-20696 Climate Change, Explained in One Simple Comic]
+
::Note: Since a lot of new people are here looking for this chart today,
* [https://reason.com/2016/09/14/send-around-this-xkcd-climate-change-web/ Send Around This XKCD Climate Change Web Cartoon, But Really Look at It First]
+
::I'll be posting Wednesday's comic on Thursday instead.
* [https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2016/09/14/493925781/epic-climate-cartoon-goes-viral-but-it-has-one-key-problem Epic Climate Cartoon Goes Viral, But It Has One Key Problem]
+
*Before that the [http://web.archive.org/web/20160912181546/https://xkcd.com/ normal heading] with the release day of xkcd was shown.
* [https://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2016/09/13/everybody-always-gets-this-wrong-even-smart-people Everybody Always Gets This Wrong, Even Smart People]
+
**This was (of course) still there Tuesday the [http://web.archive.org/web/20160913231501/http://xkcd.com/ day after] the release, because it was first on Wednesday there were reason to note the delay.
 
+
**It stayed in place even [http://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/images/6/62/1732_Earth_Temperature_Timeline_header_text_changed_also_when_next_comic_was_released.png for some time after] the "Wednesday" comic was released on Thursday, but was [http://web.archive.org/web/20160915154605/http://xkcd.com/ then removed] before [http://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/images/e/ee/1732_Earth_Temperature_Timeline_header_text_back_to_normal_shortly_after_next_comic_was_released.png noon (EST)] on Thursday.
Due to the increased level of interest in this comic, Randall made some changes to the site and the week's release schedule:
+
***Randall did thus not post a link to this comic in the header text for new visitors to use, only giving them that one extra day.
 
+
*Even though the next comic was released on a Thursday, the scheduled Friday comic [[1734: Reductionism]] was still released as planned.  
* xkcd normally releases new comics on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday. This comic was released on Monday, but given the amount of attention it was receiving, Randall decided to release the next comic [[1733: Solar Spectrum]] on [[:Category:Thursday comics|Thursday]].
+
**This was also the first time this occurred on xkcd - see [[1734:_Reductionism#Trivia|this trivia item]] from the Friday comic.
* He [https://web.archive.org/web/20160915101125/http://xkcd.com/ replaced] the default header of xkcd.com with an explanatory note, which remained until noon (EST) on Thursday:<br/>
+
==== Removal of warning and footnote ====
:: ''Note: Since a lot of new people are here looking for this chart today, I'll be posting Wednesday's comic on Thursday instead.''
+
*Maybe it was because of this popularity that both the more than 10 year old [[xkcd warning]] as well as the [[footnote#Original_footnote|original footnote]] was [[footnote#Removal_of_original_footnote|removed]] on the day of this comics release?
* On the day of the release of this comic, the [[Warning|warning]] that had been on the site for over 10 years, along with the [[Footnote#3._Bitcoin_addresses|previous footnote]], were [[Warning#Warning_removed|both]] [[Footnote#4._Footnote_removed|removed]]. While a [[Footnote#5._Current_footnote|new footnote]] was added 22 days later, the warning never came back.
+
**The next footnote was added 22 days later.
* On March 1, 2019, this comic became one of the six [[Footer comics|footer comics]] featured in the bottom segment of [https://xkcd.com xkcd.com].
 
  
 
{{comic discussion}}
 
{{comic discussion}}
  
[[Category:Comics with lowercase text]]
 
 
[[Category:Comics with color]]
 
[[Category:Comics with color]]
 
[[Category:Large drawings]]
 
[[Category:Large drawings]]
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[[Category:Internet]]
 
[[Category:Internet]]
 
[[Category:Pokémon]]
 
[[Category:Pokémon]]
[[Category:Footer comics]]
 
[[Category:Puns]] <!-- early American saying "cool." -->
 
[[Category:Volcanoes]]
 
[[Category:Nuclear weapons]]
 
[[Category:Characters with hats]] <!-- Beginning -->
 
[[Category:Footnotes]] <-- ...Sea Peoples * a real thing -->
 
[[Category:Popular Comics]]
 

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