Editing 2971: Celestial Event

{{comic
| number    = 2971
| date      = August 12, 2024
| title     = Celestial Event
| image     = celestial_event_2x.png
| imagesize = 471x300px
| noexpand  = true
| titletext = If we can get a brood of 13-year cicadas going, we might have a chance at making this happen before the oceans evaporate under the expanding sun.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a CURSED SHOP THAT APPEARS EVERY FOUR POINT THREE BILLION YEARS - Please change this comment when editing this page. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

This comic highlights the extreme rarity of witnessing multiple special events—{{w|aurora}}s, {{w|Great_Comet|great comets}}, {{w|Solar_eclipse#Total_eclipse|total solar eclipses}}, and {{w|Periodical cicadas|17-year cicada emergences}}—all occurring simultaneously in the same location. It calculates that such an event would happen only once every 4.3 billion years, a time span comparable to the age of the Earth. The comic was posted shortly after some people reported seeing auroras in conjunction with the {{w|Perseids meteor shower}}.[https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/the-2024-perseid-meteor-shower-and-northern-lights-overlapped-in-a-rare-cosmic-display-see-photos-of-the-dazzling-event/ar-AA1oJKKC] [[Randall]] also includes a 50% chance of clear skies, which further reduces the odds of witnessing all events together. The comic exaggerates the difficulty of this happening, emphasizing that these conditions align less often than Earth's lifespan, suggesting such a celestial spectacle might only occur once before Earth becomes uninhabitable.

The calculation assumes that these events occur independently and that their probabilities remain constant over time, leading to the improbable result. However, this is a simplification, as factors like orbital mechanics and atmospheric conditions are not entirely random, whereas others, such as the amount of cloud cover and the existence of cicadas, may change unpredictably over time. Randall estimates that total solar eclipses occur once every 350 years at a given location, a value close to the 320 year interval for his hometown of Boston, Massachusetts, based on [https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/JSEX/JSEX-index.html NASA's computations.]

The title text humorously suggests using 13-year cicadas instead of 17-year ones to improve the odds, reducing the interval to 3.29 billion years. This idea, along with the possibility of weather manipulation, reflects Randall's satirical take on humanity's desire to control or predict natural phenomena, even when the timescales involved are beyond human comprehension. Earth's oceans may evaporate in about a billion years [https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/12/131216142310.htm], adding a layer of urgency and humor to the idea of witnessing this "super-event" before life on Earth ceases to exist.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
:<u>Approximate frequency in my area</u>

:Active northern lights: 20 days per solar cycle

:A naked-eye "Great Comet": 2 months every 50 years

:Total eclipse: once every 350 years

:Clear skies: 50% of the time

:17-year cicada emergence: 2 months every 17 years

opening bracket

20 days over 11 years multiplied by 

2 months over 50 years multiplied by

1 over 350 years multiplied by

one half multiplied by

2 months over 17 years 

closing bracket to the power of -1

equals 4.3 billion years

:[Caption below the panel:]
:Every 4 billion years or so, my neighborhood gets to see a ''really'' spectacular show.

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Astronomy]]
[[Category:Solar eclipses]]
[[Category:Time]]
[[Category:Animals]]