Difference between revisions of "Talk:2971: Celestial Event"
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One eclipse every 350 years is not "1/350" - that would imply the eclipse lasted the whole year. The numerator unit should be a minute or so, vastly changing the result. | One eclipse every 350 years is not "1/350" - that would imply the eclipse lasted the whole year. The numerator unit should be a minute or so, vastly changing the result. | ||
| β | : Tru dat, as are the comments regarding changes over time in eclipse parameters and the effects of time approximations. However, if we let "4 minutes" be the mean time of totality for an eclipse, and insert that term (for the record, 7.6E-06) for "1" in "1/350", the equation's solution becomes 4E+14, orders of magnitude greater than the age of the universe and, IIRC, well into its projected "heat death". The joke appears to reside in the proximity of Randall's solution | + | : Tru dat, as are the comments regarding changes over time in eclipse parameters and the effects of time approximations. However, if we let "4 minutes" be the mean time of totality for an eclipse, and insert that term (for the record, 7.6E-06) for "1" in "1/350", the equation's solution becomes 4E+14, orders of magnitude greater than the age of the universe and, IIRC, well into its projected "heat death". The joke appears to reside in the proximity of Randall's solution to the commonly-accepted age of the Earth, making the solution "just possible". More "accurate" solutions would not be funny, and we would not have seen this comic.[[Special:Contributions/162.158.41.227|162.158.41.227]] 17:11, 13 August 2024 (UTC) |
There are competing factors with regard to the eclipse. Obviously total eclipses don't last for an entire year {{cn}}, but in the distant past when the Moon was significantly closer, they occurred much more frequently than once every 350 years. Far enough back, the moon was significantly larger in the sky and orbited much more rapidly making total solar eclipses a much more common event (even if nobody with eyes was around to see). Using constants for probabilities when things have significant variation is tricky. [[User:Galeindfal|Galeindfal]] ([[User talk:Galeindfal|talk]]) 14:26, 13 August 2024 (UTC) | There are competing factors with regard to the eclipse. Obviously total eclipses don't last for an entire year {{cn}}, but in the distant past when the Moon was significantly closer, they occurred much more frequently than once every 350 years. Far enough back, the moon was significantly larger in the sky and orbited much more rapidly making total solar eclipses a much more common event (even if nobody with eyes was around to see). Using constants for probabilities when things have significant variation is tricky. [[User:Galeindfal|Galeindfal]] ([[User talk:Galeindfal|talk]]) 14:26, 13 August 2024 (UTC) | ||
The adjustment due to leap years is far dwarfed by the approximate nature of "20 days" and "2 months" in some of the events. [[User:Barmar|Barmar]] ([[User talk:Barmar|talk]]) 15:06, 13 August 2024 (UTC) | The adjustment due to leap years is far dwarfed by the approximate nature of "20 days" and "2 months" in some of the events. [[User:Barmar|Barmar]] ([[User talk:Barmar|talk]]) 15:06, 13 August 2024 (UTC) | ||
Revision as of 17:13, 13 August 2024
Unfortunately, this calculation doesn't account for the eventual end of total solar eclipses due to the tidal recession of the moon. 172.69.246.142 05:31, 13 August 2024 (UTC)
- This is a great comment! Very much like something Randall would have written for title text. 172.71.146.49 05:58, 13 August 2024 (UTC)
Are all of these events really statistically independent or are e.g. active northern lights and cicada mergence more or less likely to happen at the same time of the year?
This comic was published the same night that saw both the Perseids meteor shower and an unusually strong northern lights. Strangely, the omission of meteor showers in Randall's account of Celestial Events suggests that this is a coincidence. Mumiemonstret (talk) 11:43, 13 August 2024 (UTC)
One eclipse every 350 years is not "1/350" - that would imply the eclipse lasted the whole year. The numerator unit should be a minute or so, vastly changing the result.
- Tru dat, as are the comments regarding changes over time in eclipse parameters and the effects of time approximations. However, if we let "4 minutes" be the mean time of totality for an eclipse, and insert that term (for the record, 7.6E-06) for "1" in "1/350", the equation's solution becomes 4E+14, orders of magnitude greater than the age of the universe and, IIRC, well into its projected "heat death". The joke appears to reside in the proximity of Randall's solution to the commonly-accepted age of the Earth, making the solution "just possible". More "accurate" solutions would not be funny, and we would not have seen this comic.162.158.41.227 17:11, 13 August 2024 (UTC)
There are competing factors with regard to the eclipse. Obviously total eclipses don't last for an entire year [citation needed], but in the distant past when the Moon was significantly closer, they occurred much more frequently than once every 350 years. Far enough back, the moon was significantly larger in the sky and orbited much more rapidly making total solar eclipses a much more common event (even if nobody with eyes was around to see). Using constants for probabilities when things have significant variation is tricky. Galeindfal (talk) 14:26, 13 August 2024 (UTC)
The adjustment due to leap years is far dwarfed by the approximate nature of "20 days" and "2 months" in some of the events. Barmar (talk) 15:06, 13 August 2024 (UTC)
