Editing 384: The Drake Equation
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For starters, the {{w|Drake equation}} is a model developed by (and named for) {{w|Frank Drake}}, an American astrophysicist, for estimating the number of communicating life forms in our galaxy. | For starters, the {{w|Drake equation}} is a model developed by (and named for) {{w|Frank Drake}}, an American astrophysicist, for estimating the number of communicating life forms in our galaxy. | ||
β | Even if there is life on other planets, most life forms will not establish civilizations. However, if there are any communicating civilizations, their messages would have to travel for hundreds, thousands, or hundreds of thousands of years to reach us, and then our response would take an equivalent amount of time, leaving them waiting for thousands and thousands of years or more | + | Even if there is life on other planets, most life forms will not establish civilizations. However, if there are any communicating civilizations, their messages would have to travel for hundreds, thousands, or hundreds of thousands of years to reach us, and then our response would take an equivalent amount of time, leaving them waiting for thousands and thousands of years or more probably even more than that. Any response, from their perspective, would take at least twice as long as the message took to reach its destination. |
All the factors involved in the equation are difficult to measure or estimate. No number is determined with sufficient accuracy, so the equation is a guideline for a thought experiment at best, and just "bullshit" at worst. | All the factors involved in the equation are difficult to measure or estimate. No number is determined with sufficient accuracy, so the equation is a guideline for a thought experiment at best, and just "bullshit" at worst. |