Editing Talk:2149: Alternate Histories

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Let's assume that any given alternate history has a 1% chance of being detailed enough to consider the alternate history's alt-history, and (for simplicity's sake) that no alternate histories develop in such a way as to eliminate interest in alternate histories. Given these assumptions, reaching the 500th level would require...um, my calculator isn't giving me an answer, let's just say a LOT of top-level alternate histories where the Nazis won WW2 to get anything that reached that deep. Even if each alt-history had coinflip odds of reaching the next level, you'd still need something like 3.3e150 alternate histories to get that deep; even 90% odds need 7.5e22 alt-histories. This sort of infinite regression is only practical if some aspect of an alternate history makes it and its descendants more likely to generate further alt-histories. At this point, evolution would kick in and before you got more than a dozen levels deep nearly all alt-histories would be from well-adapted alt-histories. It seems likely to me that alt-histories with lots of little details and weird contrivances would be more likely to spawn alt-histories, so this comic seems pretty accurate in that regard. [[User:GreatWyrmGold|GreatWyrmGold]] ([[User talk:GreatWyrmGold|talk]]) 16:56, 14 May 2019 (UTC)
 
Let's assume that any given alternate history has a 1% chance of being detailed enough to consider the alternate history's alt-history, and (for simplicity's sake) that no alternate histories develop in such a way as to eliminate interest in alternate histories. Given these assumptions, reaching the 500th level would require...um, my calculator isn't giving me an answer, let's just say a LOT of top-level alternate histories where the Nazis won WW2 to get anything that reached that deep. Even if each alt-history had coinflip odds of reaching the next level, you'd still need something like 3.3e150 alternate histories to get that deep; even 90% odds need 7.5e22 alt-histories. This sort of infinite regression is only practical if some aspect of an alternate history makes it and its descendants more likely to generate further alt-histories. At this point, evolution would kick in and before you got more than a dozen levels deep nearly all alt-histories would be from well-adapted alt-histories. It seems likely to me that alt-histories with lots of little details and weird contrivances would be more likely to spawn alt-histories, so this comic seems pretty accurate in that regard. [[User:GreatWyrmGold|GreatWyrmGold]] ([[User talk:GreatWyrmGold|talk]]) 16:56, 14 May 2019 (UTC)
 
:I think you're calculating that wrong. If there are 10 alternate histories now, each of those ten has ten in-universe alternate histories, etc, so there are 10^500 alternate histories we are trawling through at that depth. More than that, each step is not a minor change from actual reality, but 500 //successive// changes from actual reality, in each of those 10^500 alternatives. And at each level, nothing says the change is based on the reality //of that fiction//. So, if three levels deep in just one branch, alternate Harry Turtledove writes Guns of The Nazis, all 10^497 terminal branches beneath that are 497 steps more crazy than time travel. That, uh, is a lot of opportunities to stumble across wacky stuff, and "Laura Ingalls Wilder is god-emperor of Missouri because of pajamas" is not surprisingly wild, it's surprisingly tame. {{unsigned ip|162.158.154.135|00:06, 19 April 2024}}
 
  
 
Does anyone think some of this might be a shot at the Kaiserreich/story inside kaiserreich/so on thing? {{unsigned ip|172.69.68.129}}
 
Does anyone think some of this might be a shot at the Kaiserreich/story inside kaiserreich/so on thing? {{unsigned ip|172.69.68.129}}
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:True, though you only need 100 alternate histories in each history. Until you hit the alternate history where the war with Italy causes us to stop using the roman alphabet, you're likely to get at least that many in each setting. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.62.195|162.158.62.195]] 22:38, 17 May 2019 (UTC)
 
:True, though you only need 100 alternate histories in each history. Until you hit the alternate history where the war with Italy causes us to stop using the roman alphabet, you're likely to get at least that many in each setting. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.62.195|162.158.62.195]] 22:38, 17 May 2019 (UTC)
 
I'm surprised that a 500th iteration alternate history would have ANY names, events or institutions familiar to us. [[User:These Are Not The Comments You Are Looking For|These Are Not The Comments You Are Looking For]] ([[User talk:These Are Not The Comments You Are Looking For|talk]]) 00:38, 20 May 2019 (UTC)
 
 
This comic seems to be an excellent illustration of nested alternate realities if you follow all the links.
 
https://www.darthsanddroids.net/episodes/0050.html [[Special:Contributions/172.70.131.170|172.70.131.170]] 11:22, 29 August 2022 (UTC)
 

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