Difference between revisions of "Talk:2311: Confidence Interval"
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:: Actually, if you [https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=integrate+1%2Fsqrt%282+*+pi%29+*+exp%28-x%5E2+%2F+2%29+from++-0.001+to+0.001 integrate] a normal distribution <math>\mathcal{N}(0,1)</math> from <math>-\frac{\sigma}{1000}=-0.001</math> to <math>+\frac{\sigma}{1000}=0.001</math>, you'll get a range of about 0.08% of all values. This would be bad because it would mean that, as big as the confidence interval appears in the picture, the more meaningful 1- or 3-sigma interval (whose size represents the uncertainty of the model) would be larger by a factor of 1250 or 3750, respectively. --[[User:Koveras|Koveras]] ([[User talk:Koveras|talk]]) 08:38, 26 May 2020 (UTC) | :: Actually, if you [https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=integrate+1%2Fsqrt%282+*+pi%29+*+exp%28-x%5E2+%2F+2%29+from++-0.001+to+0.001 integrate] a normal distribution <math>\mathcal{N}(0,1)</math> from <math>-\frac{\sigma}{1000}=-0.001</math> to <math>+\frac{\sigma}{1000}=0.001</math>, you'll get a range of about 0.08% of all values. This would be bad because it would mean that, as big as the confidence interval appears in the picture, the more meaningful 1- or 3-sigma interval (whose size represents the uncertainty of the model) would be larger by a factor of 1250 or 3750, respectively. --[[User:Koveras|Koveras]] ([[User talk:Koveras|talk]]) 08:38, 26 May 2020 (UTC) | ||
:Perhaps you heard about [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_Sigma Six Sigma], a quality method used by General Electric (among others) to keep specifications and processes within tiny tolerances. The six sigmas mean that even absolute (so-called) outliers in your production are within the strict tolerances. With milli-sigmas it is extremely seldom to get an acceptable result at all. Sebastian --[[Special:Contributions/108.162.229.234|108.162.229.234]] 10:53, 26 May 2020 (UTC) | :Perhaps you heard about [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_Sigma Six Sigma], a quality method used by General Electric (among others) to keep specifications and processes within tiny tolerances. The six sigmas mean that even absolute (so-called) outliers in your production are within the strict tolerances. With milli-sigmas it is extremely seldom to get an acceptable result at all. Sebastian --[[Special:Contributions/108.162.229.234|108.162.229.234]] 10:53, 26 May 2020 (UTC) | ||
− | Can it be related to Covid19 | + | Can it be related to Covid19 pandemic and all those graphs that try to predict if it is in decline or not? [[User:Tkopec|Tkopec]] ([[User talk:Tkopec|talk]]) 08:27, 26 May 2020 (UTC) |
: No. But maybe it's related to the recent Mt. St. Helens comic... :p Seriously, not everything has to be related to the hot-button topic of the day. | : No. But maybe it's related to the recent Mt. St. Helens comic... :p Seriously, not everything has to be related to the hot-button topic of the day. | ||
::''Au contraire, mes amis'', it is obvious to me that [[1: Barrel - Part 1]] is about socially isolating away from the [[8: Red Spiders|virus]]. (Remember to sign?) [[Special:Contributions/162.158.158.237|162.158.158.237]] 10:56, 26 May 2020 (UTC) | ::''Au contraire, mes amis'', it is obvious to me that [[1: Barrel - Part 1]] is about socially isolating away from the [[8: Red Spiders|virus]]. (Remember to sign?) [[Special:Contributions/162.158.158.237|162.158.158.237]] 10:56, 26 May 2020 (UTC) | ||
Isn't the (or a) reason that this is a science ''tip'' is that having confidence lines are off the page makes it look as if the prediction is precise? [[Special:Contributions/141.101.99.65|141.101.99.65]] 11:35, 26 May 2020 (UTC) | Isn't the (or a) reason that this is a science ''tip'' is that having confidence lines are off the page makes it look as if the prediction is precise? [[Special:Contributions/141.101.99.65|141.101.99.65]] 11:35, 26 May 2020 (UTC) | ||
− | Real life example of this comic (scroll down to Alaska, Hawaii, Montana, etc): https://rt.live/ | + | Real life example of this comic (scroll down to Alaska, Hawaii, Montana, etc): https://rt.live/ ```` |
− | [[User: | + | |
+ | The smaller the error or uncertainty value, the larger the confidence number. A confidence value of less than 1 is usually considered unreliable, but may justify further experiments/observations. Confidence that is practically indistinguishable from 0 means the result is only marginally better than pure chance or a result showing no correlation. Said another way, you have no confidence in your observations. [[User:Nutster|Nutster]] ([[User talk:Nutster|talk]]) 13:41, 26 May 2020 (UTC) |
Revision as of 13:41, 26 May 2020
What's a millisigma? 162.158.107.209 03:31, 26 May 2020 (UTC)Ven
- Not an official scientific term - most likely referring to standard deviation. One standard deviation, or sigma, is the 68.3 % of values lying around the mean in a normal distribution. A millisigma in a standard deviation would be .0683 % of a normal distribution so that much variation would be bad? Not sure. 172.69.63.203 05:23, 26 May 2020 (UTC)
- Actually, if you integrate a normal distribution from to , you'll get a range of about 0.08% of all values. This would be bad because it would mean that, as big as the confidence interval appears in the picture, the more meaningful 1- or 3-sigma interval (whose size represents the uncertainty of the model) would be larger by a factor of 1250 or 3750, respectively. --Koveras (talk) 08:38, 26 May 2020 (UTC)
- Perhaps you heard about Six Sigma, a quality method used by General Electric (among others) to keep specifications and processes within tiny tolerances. The six sigmas mean that even absolute (so-called) outliers in your production are within the strict tolerances. With milli-sigmas it is extremely seldom to get an acceptable result at all. Sebastian --108.162.229.234 10:53, 26 May 2020 (UTC)
Can it be related to Covid19 pandemic and all those graphs that try to predict if it is in decline or not? Tkopec (talk) 08:27, 26 May 2020 (UTC)
- No. But maybe it's related to the recent Mt. St. Helens comic... :p Seriously, not everything has to be related to the hot-button topic of the day.
- Au contraire, mes amis, it is obvious to me that 1: Barrel - Part 1 is about socially isolating away from the virus. (Remember to sign?) 162.158.158.237 10:56, 26 May 2020 (UTC)
Isn't the (or a) reason that this is a science tip is that having confidence lines are off the page makes it look as if the prediction is precise? 141.101.99.65 11:35, 26 May 2020 (UTC)
Real life example of this comic (scroll down to Alaska, Hawaii, Montana, etc): https://rt.live/ ````
The smaller the error or uncertainty value, the larger the confidence number. A confidence value of less than 1 is usually considered unreliable, but may justify further experiments/observations. Confidence that is practically indistinguishable from 0 means the result is only marginally better than pure chance or a result showing no correlation. Said another way, you have no confidence in your observations. Nutster (talk) 13:41, 26 May 2020 (UTC)