Editing Talk:2709: Solar System Model

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It's not space weather which makes position of planets hard to predict. It's the fact that while we have exact equations for two bodies, {{w|Three-body problem}} has no closed-form solution and leads to chaotic behaviour ... and there is little more than three bodies in our solar system. Also note that it gets even more complicated when you add theory of relativity into the mix. -- [[User:Hkmaly|Hkmaly]] ([[User talk:Hkmaly|talk]]) 07:42, 11 December 2022 (UTC)
 
It's not space weather which makes position of planets hard to predict. It's the fact that while we have exact equations for two bodies, {{w|Three-body problem}} has no closed-form solution and leads to chaotic behaviour ... and there is little more than three bodies in our solar system. Also note that it gets even more complicated when you add theory of relativity into the mix. -- [[User:Hkmaly|Hkmaly]] ([[User talk:Hkmaly|talk]]) 07:42, 11 December 2022 (UTC)
:Space weather ''and'' uncountable minor bodies that have not yet been recorded ''and'' the inability to provide current motion/mass data to quite impossible levels (even for those bodies we haven't missed) lead to potentially chaotic divergences in the future.
 
:What Mars does in a million years might depend upon solar activity, precisely where it is in its orbit compared to the other major planets, whether any comet has purturbed its moons or indeed what ''humans'' have done to/around it (nudged some comets towards it, assembled a web of space elevators from its adjusted satellites and imported asteroid-belt masses, caused it to ''lose'' mass for various intentional practical or accidental reasons, who knows..?).
 
:Even ignoring anthropogenic changes, a slightly slower/faster orbit would effect the other planets (at least the inner rocky ones, but probably Jupiter gets resonated differently, eventually, thenceforth most of the system readjusts), which would in turn effect Mars again.
 
:It is a chaotic system, and basic unknowns such as whether one or more CME will directly engulf any given inner planet (and when) are a detail that can drastically change the already fuzzy propobabilities of exactly when resonances conspire to make great changes to the current astronomical models. Refining the probabilities (based upon current understanding of various odds involved) is a continuous problem, and can never even rule out something unpredictable making even 'short'-term predictions all wrong. You can emperically run an idealised N-body problem through (with multiple runs to encompass the latitude of uncertainty in overtly known values, if you wish, as with weather services) but when something makes it an (N+m)-body problem, all bets are off, to the degree you did not anticipate the extra complications. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.159.46|162.158.159.46]] 19:08, 13 December 2022 (UTC)
 
  
 
Of course, we now know that the planets are actually styrofoam balls held up by bits of string. [[Special:Contributions/172.70.175.10|172.70.175.10]] 22:02, 11 December 2022 (UTC)
 
Of course, we now know that the planets are actually styrofoam balls held up by bits of string. [[Special:Contributions/172.70.175.10|172.70.175.10]] 22:02, 11 December 2022 (UTC)

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