1311: 2014

Explain xkcd: It's 'cause you're dumb.
Jump to: navigation, search
This page refers to the comic named "2014". For comic #2014, see 2014: JWST Delays.
2014
↓ Skip to explanation ↓
Some future reader, who may see the term, without knowing the history of it, may imagine that it had reference to some antiquated bridge of the immortal Poet, thrown across the silver Avon, to facilitate his escape after some marauding excursion in a neighbouring park; and in some Gentleman's Magazine of the next century, it is not impossible, but that future antiquaries may occupy page after page in discussing so interesting a matter. We think it right, therefore, to put it on record in the Oriental Herald that the 'Shakesperian Rope Bridges' are of much less classic origin; that Mr Colin Shakespear, who, besides his dignity as Postmaster, now signs himself 'Superintendent General of Shakesperian Rope Bridges', is a person of much less genius than the Bard of Avon. --The Oriental Herald, 1825
Title text: Some future reader, who may see the term, without knowing the history of it, may imagine that it had reference to some antiquated bridge of the immortal Poet, thrown across the silver Avon, to facilitate his escape after some marauding excursion in a neighbouring park; and in some Gentleman's Magazine of the next century, it is not impossible, but that future antiquaries may occupy page after page in discussing so interesting a matter. We think it right, therefore, to put it on record in the Oriental Herald that the 'Shakesperian Rope Bridges' are of much less classic origin; that Mr Colin Shakespear, who, besides his dignity as Postmaster, now signs himself 'Superintendent General of Shakesperian Rope Bridges', is a person of much less genius than the Bard of Avon. --The Oriental Herald, 1825

Explanation[edit]

This New Year comic is to commemorate the New Year by giving us a view of the coming year (2014) from the past. The comic includes many quotes from the 1800s and early 1900s that speak to a time close to 2014. Many of them are for the twenty-first century in general, and only three mention a year that would be 2014 exactly. All but one of them is a prediction, yet some of these are quotes from fictional literature, and therefore are not true predictions. Words are in boldface to highlight the relevant content in the quote. The grey or non-bold text is non-essential to the point Randall is interested in, and only to be used to understand the context of the quote.

The title text refers to a certain British officer, Mr. Colin Shakespeare, who experimented with and promoted the use of rope suspension bridges in India. The reference to "The Bard of Avon" is a reference to Shakespeare (the playwright), as Avon is the river on which Stratford upon Avon is set, and is where the playwright was born and spent his youth. The author of this quote under the guise of eliminating the potential confusion that might result after decades or centuries have washed away the context, ironically and possibly vindictively, makes a point to note that the bridge is not named after the playwright, but Mr. Colin Shakespeare, whom he considers considerably less intelligent. This topic was previously covered in 771: Period Speech.

Two years before, another New Years comic with just the new years number as the title was released: 998: 2012. But actually the content of this comic is more related to the comic coming out just before the 2012 comic: 997: Wait Wait, which is also a New Year comic, that took a look at what could happen in 2012, just as this one does for 2014... In 2016 another comic, with only the new year as the name theme, occurred again 1624: 2016. For some reason this only seemed to happen in the even years, until 1779: 2017 was released, with 1935: 2018 being the next one.

The style of the comic is very similar to that of 1227: The Pace of Modern Life, which was released half a year earlier.

Additional information[edit]

Quote Author or publisher Year Years realized Description
"It's desirable every thing printed should be preserved, for we cannot now tell how useful it may become two centuries hence." Christopher Baldwin 1834 Not a prediction A good idea. Now, with Google Books, this can be done in an easier manner. Unfortunately, many books that were printed between the mid-19th century and the widespread usage of acid-free wood-pulp paper starting from the early 1990s are either no longer known to exist, are heavily damaged (mostly through deterioration — see slow fire) or are very scarce.
"I predict that a century hence the Canadian people will be the noblest specimens of humanity on the face of the earth" Rev John Bredin 1863 Subjective Calling the citizens of any nation "the noblest" is difficult to quantify. Canada, in general, has a reputation as a safe, healthy and polite society, but, like any nation, they have both positive and negative qualities. The rest of the quote goes as follows: "all that was good in the Celt, the Saxon, the Gaul and other races, combining to form neither English, Irish, nor Welsh, but Canadians, who would take their place among the churches of Christendom and the nations of the earth." This religious prediction probably wasn't believed even by its author. It's only a harangue.
"In the twenty-first century mankind will subsist entirely upon jellies." The Book Lover 1903 Not yet, but we still have time to do so Concentrates, which are gelatin-like, form a large part of our food sources. Absurd if taken literally, because it would be nigh impossible to rely on only concentrates for nutrients,[citation needed] but if he's talking about processed foods in general then he's not too far off the mark.
"The twenty-first century baby is destined to be rocked and cradled by electricity, warmed and coddled by electricity, perhaps fathered and mothered by electricity. Probably the only thing he will be left to do unaided will be to make love." Mrs John Lane, The Fortnightly 1905 1960s–1980s The parameters of this prediction are fairly ambiguous. Certainly, electricity impacts nearly every aspect of modern life, from the time most children are born. While child-rearing is very much a human activity (and parents today arguably spend more time and effort on children than in past eras), electrically powered aids are everywhere. Children are indeed "rocked and cradled" in automatic swings, and "warmed and coddled" by means of electric heaters and incubators (in medical cases). In fact, most aspects of child-rearing can be aided by some electronic gadget or other. As of 2020, no children have been born without biological mothers and fathers, but the process of in vitro fertilization, in which conception is mediated by technology, has been in use since 1978. As for making love unaided, Mrs. Lane may have underestimated the implications of technology, as there are now a wide range of devices and aides, electronic and otherwise, which are designed to assist in sexual gratification, both with and without partners.
"To-day, in the city of New York, sixty-six different tongues are spoken. A century hence, there will probably be only one." The American Historical Magazine 1907 Not realized The number of languages spoken in New York City is believed to be greater than 100; some estimate as many as 800 languages are spoken there. The U.S. Census Bureau reports that in the greater New York metropolitan area, almost 7 million people speak a language other than English at home, including over 3.5 million who speak Spanish, 2 million who speak other Indo-European languages, 1 million who speak Asian or Pacific Island languages, and 300,000 who speak other languages. Also, New York City is the location of the headquarters of the United Nations, with diplomats from nearly every country in the world, and several official languages.
"I often think what interesting history we are making for the student of the twenty-first century." William Carey Jones 1908 1900's–present Referring to the events that led to World War I. In 1908, Austria-Hungary annexed Bosnia and Herzegovina. This led to the Sarajevo Assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria in 1914 that is considered the starting event of the World War.
"China may be a great shoe market a decade or a century from now." Boot and Shoe Recorder 1914 1970's–present The publication in question appears only interested in footwear, while, in fact, China has become one of the world's largest economies, making it a huge consumer and producer of a full array of products. The range of "a decade or a century from now" makes for a pretty vague prediction. China didn't really qualify as a "great market" for western goods until trade barriers were removed in the 1970's. This was well over a decade from the prediction, but well under a century.
"We cannot settle the problem, and I venture the prophecy that perhaps a century from now this same question may be brought before some future society and discussed very much as it is tonight. Dr. Barton C. Hirst (on abortion) 1914 1914–present Abortion is still heavily debated. Various societies have different levels of legal regulation, social stigma, and assumed moral implications, and even within societies there is often not a clear consensus. While laws have changed heavily over the last century, and attitudes have very likely shifted, the debate has certainly not ended, and arguably hasn't substantially changed.
"By the twenty-first century we shall all be telepaths." Gumbril, a character in Aldous Huxley's novel Antic Hay 1923 Not realized[citation needed] [1]: "And it's my firm belief," said Gumbril Senior, adding notes to his epic, "that they [the birds] make use of some sort of telepathy, some kind of direct mind-to-mind communication between themselves. You can't watch them without coming to that conclusion." [...] "It's a faculty," Gumbril Senior went on, "we all possess, I believe. All we animals." [...] "By the twenty-first century, I believe, we shall all be telepaths. Meanwhile, these delightful birds have forestalled us."
"The physician of the twenty-first century… may even criticize the language of the times, and may find that some of our words have become as offensive to him as the term "lunatic" has become offensive to us." Dr. C. Macfie Cambell 1924 1950's–present The word "lunatic" is still considered derogatory and because of that it would never be used in a clinical sense. He correctly predicts the trajectory of terms like "mentally retarded", itself adopted by his day to replace earlier terms for the intellectually disabled, such as "moron" and "imbecile", which had become pejorative. Soon enough the word "retard" joined them in that regard, and it has now largely been abandoned as a medical term. This cycle is a common one, known as (among other things) the "euphemism treadmill".
"Historians of the twenty-first century will look back with well-placed scorn on the shallow-minded days of the early twentieth century when football games and petting parties were considered the most important elements of a college education." Mary Eileen Ahern, Library Bureau 1926 Subjective This item is likely included somewhat sardonically, because an emphasis on college athletics and wild parties remains an important part of the college experience for many people, and that emphasis is likely at least as common as it was 90 years ago, and probably condemned less often. They're not considered "the most important elements" by most people, either now or then, but many students consider them to be an essential part of being in college. There's little to no evidence that college students have become more studious or less inclined to have fun over the last century.
"In the year A.D. 2014 journalists will be writing on the centenary of the great war — that is, if there has not been a greater war." F.J.M, The Journalist 1934 2014 and 1939 respectively At the time of this prediction, World War I was generally referred to as "The Great War". Five years after this prediction was made, World War II began, tragically fulfilling the condition of "a greater war". As bloody and brutal as World War I was, World War II was worse, by almost every possible metric. Journalists definitely wrote articles about World War I on its anniversary, and the war is still remembered and studied, but it has very certainly been overshadowed in most of the world by the "greater war".

Transcript[edit]

(This is a series of quotes from various people of various timeframes. Each quote is followed by the author, the document of publication if applicable, and the year.)
Notes from the past
It's desirable every thing printed should be preserved, for we cannot now tell how useful it may become two centuries hence.
Christopher Baldwin
1834
I predict that a century hence the Canadian people will be the noblest specimens of humanity on the face of the earth
Rev. John Bredin
1863
In the twenty-first century mankind will subsist entirely upon jellies.
The Booklover
1903
The twenty-first century baby is destined to be rocked and cradled by electricity, warmed and coddled by electricity, perhaps fathered and mothered by electricity. Probably the only thing he will be left to do unaided will be to make love.
Mrs. John Lane, The fortnightly
1905
To-day, in the city of New York, sixty-six different tongues are spoken. A century hence, there will probably be only one.
The American Historical Magazine
1907
I often think what interesting history we are making for the student of the twenty-first century.
Willian Carey Jones
1908
China may be a great shoe market a decade or a century from now.
Boot and Shoe Recorder
1914
We cannot settle the problem, and I venture the prophecy that perhaps a century from now this same question may be brought before some future society and discussed very much as it is tonight.
Dr. Barton C. Hirst on the subject of abortion
1914
By the twenty-first century I believe we shall all be telepaths.
Gumbriel, character in Antic Hay
1923
The physician of the twenty-first century… may even criticize the language of the times, and may find that some of our words have become as offensive to him as the term "lunatic" has become offensive to us.
Dr. C. Macfie Campbell
1924
Historians of the twenty-first century will look back with well-placed scorn on the shallow-minded days of the early twentieth century when football games and petting parties were considered the most important elements of a college education.
Mary Eileen Ahern, Library Bureau
1926
In the year A.D. 2014 journalists will be writing on the centenary of the great war — that is, if there has not been a greater war.
F.J.M, The Journalist
1934


comment.png add a comment! ⋅ comment.png add a topic (use sparingly)! ⋅ Icons-mini-action refresh blue.gif refresh comments!

Discussion

Just a note that the PNG file for this comic is (or was initially) actually a TIFF file with a PNG extension. 108.162.236.19 05:37, 1 January 2014 (UTC)

And now it's fixed. 173.245.54.45 06:07, 1 January 2014 (UTC)

I presume most of the quotes are genuine, but surely Randall has made up the one about subsisting on jellies? 141.101.99.219 11:08, 1 January 2014 (UTC)

I wouldn't be so sure. The Book-Lover - Vol. 4. (No. 17 to 22) 1903 contains Poe, Edgar Allan and Dickens, Charles and Emerson, Ralph Waldo ... maybe it refers to some of Poe's horror stories? -- Hkmaly (talk) 12:10, 1 January 2014 (UTC)
Spherical jelliies and creams were very fashionable in the era in which it was written, so it may have been simply a prediction of great luxury for the future. 108.162.237.4 14:37, 1 January 2014 (UTC)(Kyt)
Here's the Book-lover reference: [2]
Two sections from the H.G. Wells book it came from (When the Sleeper Wakes):
"There were several very comfortable chairs, a light table on silent runners carrying several bottles of fluids and glasses, and two plates bearing a clear substance like jelly."
"They gave him some pink fluid with a greenish fluorescence and a meaty taste, and the assurance of returning strength grew."
-- Jim Gillogly 108.162.215.15 16:50, 1 January 2014 (UTC)
Ok ... William Carey Jones quote: [3] ... I would say that while technically true, he didn't meant it because he doesn't refer to first world war but instead some problems of American democracy which were probably forgotten ... -- Hkmaly (talk) 12:21, 1 January 2014 (UTC)
Christopher Baldwin: [4] ... I would say good luck with preserving everything printed :-), but the idea is certainly good and projects like Google Books are attempting to solve the problem he was talking about. -- Hkmaly (talk) 12:25, 1 January 2014 (UTC)
Actually, no. Google Books is trying to make printed books accessible on-line. That does not make them more preserved, just more accessible. Paper books (provided they're printed on acid-free paper) are actually more likely to be preserved and readable two centuries from now than are electronic media, which must be periodically refreshed. 173.245.54.87 (talk) (please sign your comments with ~~~~)
Both paper books and electronic media must be periodically refreshed. Electronic media must be refreshed more often, but on the other hand, they may be refreshed more quickly. Compare time it takes to reprint book (even if you use scanner, OCR and high-speed printer) with time it takes to copy the PDF from older HDD to newer. If we manage to evade World War III, it is easily possible the folder "all data obtained in 2014" will still exist in Google datacenters, safely mirrored to all locations, thousands years after all paper printed today will turn to dust. Archaeologist of 40th century wouldn't dig real dirt, they would dig in exabytes of digital archives, trying to find the real important stuff between stuff someone stored simply because storage capacity was cheap enough. (On the other hand, if we DON'T evade World War III, there wouldn't be any archaeologists in 40th century. It's not like the ruins would be safe to enter anyway.) -- Hkmaly (talk) 10:29, 25 April 2014 (UTC)

Found the reference to Shakespearian rope bridges... http://books.google.com/books?id=BJIeAQAAIAAJ&pg=PA126&lpg=PA126&dq=oriental+herald+postmaster&source=bl&ots=7_NUMfRlPW&sig=6d6WLenjQBjOiGJBDoQjIa-FYkk&hl=en&sa=X&ei=Q0XEUuKbKsTpoATP-4HgCg&ved=0CC8Q6AEwAw#v=onepage&q=oriental%20herald%20postmaster&f=false -- Androgenoide (talk) (please sign your comments with ~~~~)

Found the reference to Spherical jellies: http://books.google.com/books?id=8IckAQAAIAAJ&lpg=PA87&ots=WRVY13FRwM&dq=%22subsist%20entirely%20upon%20jellies%22&pg=PA87#v=onepage&q=%22subsist%20entirely%20upon%20jellies%22&f=false Zeeprime (talk) 17:57, 1 January 2014 (UTC)

Found another reference to Shakespearian rope bridges. In short, some British officer called Mr. Shakespeare experimented and promoted the use of rope suspension bridges in India, apparently for the ease of colonization and military operations. http://books.google.com/books?id=aZRPAAAAYAAJ&pg=PA367 -furrypony 173.245.48.181 21:21, 1 January 2014 (UTC)

This looks like the actual rope bridge quote: http://books.google.com/books?id=8nyrbv2d_EUC&pg=PA115&dq=oriental+herald+%22bard+of+avon%22&hl=en&sa=X&ei=g5_IUruFMIyPkAffrIDIAQ&ved=0CC0Q6AEwAA#v=onepage&q=oriental%20herald%20%22bard%20of%20avon%22&f=false 108.162.237.11 (talk) (please sign your comments with ~~~~)

Is it possible that the highlighted words can be shuffled to reveal a hidden message? Has Randall done this before? 141.101.99.214 07:53, 2 January 2014 (UTC)

The fourth quote (.."rocked and cradled by electricity"..) seems to appear in The Champagne Standard by LANE, Annie Eichberg (Mrs. John Lane). [5] 141.101.99.224 (talk) (please sign your comments with ~~~~)

regarding the languages of new york city

http://languagehat.com/doing-field-linguistics-in-new-york-city/ 173.245.53.168 (talk) (please sign your comments with ~~~~)


Tone of the explanation

I find the tone of the explanation as it stands right now not to be in line with the rest of the explanations available on the site. For example:

 By the twenty-first century I believe we shall all be telepaths.
   Absurd

The plain "absurd" does not provide an explanation, only a judgement. It would be more useful it the explanation contained a link to a source with the quote, to provide context. Or provide a short bio for the person credited with the explanation. I understand the fascination behind arguing against or for the prediction, but that does not explain the comic. For example, you could argue that this particular prediction is in a sense accurate. Nowadays we all communicate in a way that people from a century ago would consider almost telepathic, given that "telepathy" means "distant experience". No, we are not mind readers, but a lot of us carry a device in our pockets that allows us to experience things at a distance.

Also, I wonder why some sentences are in boldface. I tried reading only the bold text, and it is not coherent enough. I tried reading the grey text, and it isn't coherent either. I tried several other ways of reading the texts, and I cannot find any "hidden meaning".

I believe it's just to highlight content. The grey or non-bold text is (for the most part) non-essential to the content of the quote. 173.245.52.213 (talk) (please sign your comments with ~~~~)

--mem (talk) 16:10, 2 January 2014 (UTC)

I see I'm not the only one who thought of cellphones when he read that sentence. I've edited the article to reflect this explanation. --NeatNit (talk) 17:39, 2 January 2014 (UTC)


It seems to me that Randall believes that bolded text is false and grey text is true.173.245.50.62 16:13, 2 January 2014 (UTC)

This makes no sense. Most of the grey text has little content, and Abortion is still a very debated topic. 173.245.52.213 (talk) (please sign your comments with ~~~~)
I think it's just for emphasis. He used a similar style in 1227: The Pace of Modern Life to highlight the bits that particularly resonate with modern times, e.g., the writer in 1905 who complained that people converse while riding their bikes, oblivious to their surroundings. Fryhole (talk) 20:53, 6 January 2014 (UTC)

There is also the recent budding prospect of technologically assisted telepathy, such as was recently done with small laboratory rodents. While not exactly "everyone" just yet, (ahem), the prospect is certainly not "absurd". Technologically enabled telepathy certainly looks possible, and given the rate of technological progress of this century, the prediction could well come true.

http://news.discovery.com/tech/biotechnology/two-rats-communicate-brain-to-brain-130227.htm

108.162.221.84 17:06, 2 January 2014 (UTC)

Technologically assisted telepathy redefines the word telepathy. For example Random House says communication between minds by some means other than sensory perception (my emphasis). Collins: the communication between people of thoughts, feelings, desires, etc, involving mechanisms that cannot be understood in terms of known scientific laws (my emphasis). 173.245.50.84 17:51, 2 January 2014 (UTC)

Note also that the novel is talking about natural telepathy, like the one birds may have. 173.245.50.84 22:15, 4 January 2014 (UTC)


108.162.219.208 17:16, 2 January 2014 (UTC) I suspect that most -- but not all -- of the "predictions" are apocryphal. For instance, I can indeed find the Gumbril (not "Gumbriel") character and citation in Huxley's "Antic Hay". However, the statement attributed to a methodist preacher and proselytizer (who really existed) in Upper Canada in 1864 seems to me totally out of character, and very hard to believe for the period. It was essentially the French who called themselves "Canadiens". The "others" still saw the place they lived in as an extension of the UK. To wit, John A. MacDonald, who famously wired "Send me another $10,000", also said "A British Subject I was born, a British Subject I shall die".

electric baby rearing

It should be noted that this quote was wrong about making love being a sanctuary from electric devices. 108.162.216.78 (talk) (please sign your comments with ~~~~)

In fact electrical love making was one of the first appliances of electricity. But in the 1880s selling or advertising these devices was a taboo. --141.101.104.110 11:22, 23 December 2021 (UTC)


Regarding languages spoken: according to

http://www.ethnologue.com/statistics/size

English is only third in languages spoken as primary language after Chinese and Spanish, while closely followed by Hindi and Arabic. I would not be too sure, if English will win out in NYC. 108.162.231.222 17:19, 3 January 2014 (UTC)

According to this report from the New York State comptroller's office dated 2006,

http://www.osc.state.ny.us/osdc/rpt3-2007queens.pdf

there are about 170 languages spoken in Queens. If that's at all accurate, it means that language diversity in New York hasn't shrunk but indeed nearly tripled.

--Dotour (talk) 10:21, 4 January 2014 (UTC)


I think the quote about colleges, football, and partying is included as an aversion. Football is still huge in the south, and partying everywhere. 173.245.50.60 16:53, 25 January 2014 (UTC) (P.S. Apparently this comment got eaten by ??? so I had to post it twice. Weird.)


If not a typo, is it worth mentioning that the guy in the title text is called "Shakespear" not "Shakespeare" but all you modern guys apparently ignored the difference? 108.162.215.56 15:31, 9 February 2014 (UTC)

Could be a typo in the quoted Oriental Herald article. The book referenced above spells it "Shakespeare". Brion (talk) 17:08, 13 March 2014 (UTC)
We have six copies of Shakespeare's signature, and they're all spelled differently. It's possible that the Herald thought that people might assume "Shakespear" was simply an alternate spelling. 172.68.174.10EvanJM42

English is not my native language, but surely "barrieres" is a typo, right? I'll edit it. If I'm wrong, please revert it. And, if this comment is absolutely unnecessary, please delete it. 108.162.219.125 02:58, 10 February 2015 (UTC)


I was curious about what was meant by "petting parties", and I found this article: http://www.npr.org/sections/npr-history-dept/2015/05/26/409126557/when-petting-parties-scandalized-the-nation It seems to me that what the original quote meant by petting party, is now totally a thing of the past :-) --188.114.102.243 17:12, 17 July 2015 (UTC)

I often think what interesting history we are making for the student of the twenty-second century. Sci09273.15 (talk) 18:26, 28 September 2022 (UTC)