Editing 3007: Probabilistic Uncertainty

{{comic
| number    = 3007
| date      = November 4, 2024
| title     = Probabilistic Uncertainty
| image     = probabilistic_uncertainty_2x.png
| imagesize = 474x385px
| noexpand  = true
| titletext = "One popular strategy is to enter an emotional spiral. Could that be the right approach? We contacted several researchers who are experts in emotional spirals to ask them, but none of them were in a state to speak with us."
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a PESSIMISTIC POLL-VIEWING BOT - Please change this comment when editing this page. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
This comic is about the difficulty of dealing psychologically with 50/50 odds, and is likely inspired by the {{W|2024 United States presidential election}}, as this comic was released the day prior.  The odds of the election as reported by many media sources were close to 50/50 <ref>https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/</ref> <ref>https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president.html</ref> <ref>https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/</ref>, where the pre-election polls show roughly a 50/50 chance of either {{w|Kamala Harris}} or {{w|Donald Trump}} being elected. This 50/50 scenario is the third scenario shown in the comic.

Further, with regards to N/A - the odds of "precisely" 50/50 are probabilistically zero, unless the event under consideration is something relatively trivial such as a coinflip or die roll (and even with those it is extremely unlikely the coins or dice are perfectly "fair").  Any scenario that involves social sciences, such as an election (or even a single relationship) will never be precisely 50/50 (or, indeed, *any* discrete value).

{| class="wikitable"
!Odds
!How to think about it in an emotionally healthy way
!Explanation
|-
| Good outcome more likely || Recognize that the bad outcome is possible, but be reassured that the odds are in your favor || An optimistic attitude with a dose of realism.
|-
| Bad outcome more likely || Prepare for the bad outcome while remembering that the future isn't certain and hope is justified || A realistic attitude with a dose of optimism.
|-
| Precisely 50/50 || ????? N/A ???? || {{w|N/A}} stands for "not available", "no answer", "not applicable" or "not assessed". The actual worst case scenario, with no single obvious stance to take. (Thus also leaving ambiguous which fall-back position one should prepare to hold in reserve.)
|}

There are any number of actual strategies to consider, the details of which will all depend very much upon the exact situation being faced, and one's own existing range of experiences and attitudes. Part of the joke may be in presenting such a condensed summary. Anyone who truly feels they need help to prepare such expectations should ideally seek specific advice/counsel, not take a generic and impersonal checklist at face value.

The title text is a joke making use of ambiguous wording: "researchers who are experts in emotional spirals" could either refer to researchers who study emotional spirals, or researchers who are undergoing emotional spirals themselves. Evidently, all the researchers "we" contacted were the latter, and thus unable to advise the comic.

==Transcript==
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[A table titled "Coping With Probabilistic Uncertainty", with two columns labeled "Scenario" and "How to think about it in an emotionally healthy way". The boxes in the Scenario column contains text followed by a rectangle split into two parts; the left part is a smiley face, the right part is a frowny face with slanted, angry eyes.]

Row 1, column 1: "Good outcome more likely". The smiley face portion of the rectangle is about 75%. 
Row 1, column 2: "Recognize that the bad outcome is possible, but be reassured that the odds are in your favor".

Row 2, column 1: "Bad outcome more likely". The smiley face portion of the rectangle is about 25%.
Row 2, column 2: "Prepare for the bad outcome while remembering that the future isn't certain and hope is justified".

Row 3, column 1: "Precisely 50/50". The rectangle is split in half.
Row 3, column 2: "????? N/A ????"

==Trivia==
* This comic was posted a day before Election Day in the US, where the media has been reporting (based off of voter polls) that the 2 presidential candidates ([[Kamala Harris]] and [[Donald Trump]]) are closely contesting for the White House.  This may be a possible reason behind the creation of this comic. 

* Randall has dealt with the possibility of a tied electoral count 12 years before in ''what-if? [https://what-if.xkcd.com/19 #19]''

==References==
{{reflist}}

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Psychology]] [[Category:Statistics]]