Editing Talk:2701: Change in Slope

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:104 points. [[Special:Contributions/172.71.154.39|172.71.154.39]] 19:17, 22 November 2022 (UTC)
 
:104 points. [[Special:Contributions/172.71.154.39|172.71.154.39]] 19:17, 22 November 2022 (UTC)
::: I only count 69 distinct dots, although a handful look like they might be merged pairs. What's up with that? [[Special:Contributions/172.70.210.48|172.70.210.48]] 04:54, 26 November 2022 (UTC)
 
  
 
:: Can someone please check my work https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1c_7Qj3S1VXtL-AckfSfHCd4ofGYYDYH5 and tell me if I'm doing it right? I'm pretty sure I don't really know what I'm doing. I kind of cargo cult-coded the Savitzky-Golay filter stuff linked from the explanation and have zero understanding of what's actually going on. [[Special:Contributions/172.70.211.126|172.70.211.126]] 21:58, 22 November 2022 (UTC)
 
:: Can someone please check my work https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1c_7Qj3S1VXtL-AckfSfHCd4ofGYYDYH5 and tell me if I'm doing it right? I'm pretty sure I don't really know what I'm doing. I kind of cargo cult-coded the Savitzky-Golay filter stuff linked from the explanation and have zero understanding of what's actually going on. [[Special:Contributions/172.70.211.126|172.70.211.126]] 21:58, 22 November 2022 (UTC)
 
:: Here's how Randall seems to be suggesting to do it, based on the light gray figures: [superceded] -- Can someone please help fix the residuals on the second plot? [[Special:Contributions/172.71.154.158|172.71.154.158]] 01:18, 23 November 2022 (UTC)
 
::: I fixed the residuals and added an inset confidence interval comparisons for the two slopes, split by both their maximum difference and by the maximum sum of the r<sup>2</sup> values: https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1apKDIN5FE32mtGiQew5cE6wK6m6eM_Fr It's not clear from the gray text which method Randall is suggesting. [[Special:Contributions/172.70.211.126|172.70.211.126]] 22:07, 24 November 2022 (UTC)
 
:::: I added this to the end of the Colab notebook:
 
 
# Later in the Explainxkcd explanation, a "Significance of the Difference between Two Slopes Calculator"
 
# at https://www.danielsoper.com/statcalc/calculator.aspx?id=103 is recommended, so ... we get:
 
 
# split by maximum slope difference:  (as shown in green and red)
 
#  t-Value:              5.52246856
 
#  Degrees of freedom:  100
 
#  Probability:          0.00000027 (significant as < 0.05)
 
 
# split by maximum sum of r²s:
 
#  t-Value:              6.25478825
 
#  Degrees of freedom:  100
 
#  Probability:          0.00000001 (also very significant)
 
 
# So, while the latter might technically be  about 27 times more likely, both represent undoutably
 
# different linear fits. Perhaps someone can ask Randall which he was suggesting, if indeed either?
 
 
:::: What's the most reliable way to ask Randall this? Twitter? Email? Google Chat? [[Special:Contributions/172.71.158.91|172.71.158.91]] 23:08, 24 November 2022 (UTC)
 
::::: Why don't you generate a series of mildly noisy datasets of two slightly different but random lines each and see which method gets closest to the generating parameters? Also, please put more blank lines in your code, and consider right-aligning the comments. [[Special:Contributions/172.70.211.146|172.70.211.146]] 01:56, 26 November 2022 (UTC)
 
 
What's funny is people are doing a lot of statistics and computer magic when you can just tilt your screen like the comic says and get the same effect :P {{unsigned ip|172.70.54.52|16:14, 25 November 2022}}
 
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